Saint Etienne 3-2 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bastia at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Saint Etienne face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Saint Etienne and Bastia meet at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard in Ligue 2 (matchday 19). This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Saint Etienne have collected 1.10 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Saint Etienne at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bastia (all games): 3W 4D 3L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Bastia's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 3D 6L (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (from Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) — Saint Etienne have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Bastia in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Saint Etienne, 1 for Bastia and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.5 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 31 Jan 2023, ended Saint Etienne 0–2 Bastia — a Bastia win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.5 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Saint Etienne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 54% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Bastia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Saint Etienne 55% versus Bastia 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Saint Etienne 48% | Bastia 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Saint Etienne 1.01 xG and Bastia 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Saint Etienne attack 0.904 / defence 1.008 | Bastia attack 0.995 / defence 0.915. League average goals — home 1.216 / away 1.126. Data: built from Saint Etienne's last 56 games and Bastia's last 56.
Result probabilities: Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 30% | Bastia 38%. Fair-value odds: Saint Etienne 3.14 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 2.62. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bastia at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Saint Etienne's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 57%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Saint Etienne 30% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 30% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Saint Etienne vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 19 | Venue: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard • Kick-off: Tuesday 19 December 2023 at 19:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 30% | Bastia 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 43% (No 57%) | xG Saint Etienne 1.01 / Bastia 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Saint Etienne attack 0.904 / def 1.008 | Bastia attack 0.995 / def 0.915 | league avg home 1.216 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: Bastia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Saint Etienne xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Bastia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Saint Etienne vs Bastia kick off?
Saint Etienne vs Bastia kicked off at 19:45 UK time on Tuesday 19 December 2023 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What was the final score in Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Saint Etienne 3 - 2 Bastia.
Where is Saint Etienne vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard.
What competition is Saint Etienne vs Bastia part of?
Saint Etienne vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 19) (France).
Who is favourite to win Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Saint Etienne a 32% chance of winning, Bastia a 38% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Saint Etienne and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (57%).
Will Saint Etienne vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Saint Etienne's attack at 0.90x the league average against Bastia's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.01 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.99x) against Saint Etienne's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from Saint Etienne's last 56 games and Bastia's last 56 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 0-1 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
32%
3.14
30%
3.33
38%
2.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Saint Etienne xG
Total xG
2.13
1.13
Bastia xG
3.14
32%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.62
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
10%
9.70
14%
7.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 13.3 | 7.5 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Saint Etienne and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Saint Etienne and 1.13 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Saint Etienne vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Saint Etienne's recent record stands at 22W 15D 19L from 56 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 22W 15D 19L across 56 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-L-W-D in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.45 PPG for Saint Etienne against 1.45 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Saint Etienne have managed 13W 6D 9L from their last 28 home games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across their last 28 away games, a 1.04 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bastia's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Saint Etienne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Saint Etienne are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.27 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Saint Etienne
Blended
Bastia
Blended
Saint Etienne (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Saint Etienne
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Saint Etienne and Bastia in coming into this match?
Saint Etienne have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 games (1.45 PPG), while Bastia have gone 22W 15D 19L in their last 56 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Saint Etienne at home or Bastia away?
Saint Etienne's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Saint Etienne at home: 1.61 PPG; Bastia away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Saint Etienne or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Saint Etienne have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Bastia in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Saint Etienne and Bastia, the earliest from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 18 April 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Saint Etienne won Saint Etienne 5-0 Bastia on 30 Aug 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Saint Etienne have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Saint Etienne
1
Draws
2
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Saint Etienne and Bastia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Saint Etienne have won 3, Bastia have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Saint Etienne and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 April 2026: Bastia 2-0 Saint Etienne.
Who has won more matches between Saint Etienne and Bastia?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Saint Etienne see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 60% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Saint Etienne 43%, Bastia 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Saint Etienne) and 39% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Saint Etienne keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Bastia in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Saint Etienne home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Saint Etienne vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Saint Etienne and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 43% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Saint Etienne and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Saint Etienne's recent games and 39% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Saint Etienne and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 54% of Saint Etienne's recent matches and 64% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Saint Etienne defy the odds to beat Bastia 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Saint Etienne beat Bastia 3-2 at Stade Geoffroy-Guichard, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Saint Etienne 1.01 xG and Bastia 1.13 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Saint Etienne beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Saint Etienne attack 0.90 / defence 1.01 against Bastia attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Saint Etienne 32% | Draw 30% | Bastia 38%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Saint Etienne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Saint Etienne 48%, Bastia 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Saint Etienne's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Bastia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Saint Etienne 1.45 PPG, Bastia 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Saint Etienne win broke the near-deadlock. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.39 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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