Paris FC 1-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Paris FC (42%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Paris FC face Amiens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Paris FC host Amiens at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2 (matchday 18). Kick-off is Saturday 11 January 2025 at 13:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Paris FC — last 10 games: 4W 4D 2L, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home, Paris FC have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Amiens have recorded 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Amiens's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 0D 6L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
On current form, Paris FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The head-to-head sample comes down firmly in favour of Paris FC: 4 wins from 7 H2H matches against 0 for Amiens, with 3 draws.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Oct 2024, ended Paris FC 0–0 Amiens — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Paris FC an edge — 4 wins from 7 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Patterns
Paris FC in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Amiens in-play and half-time data (last 55 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 49% versus Amiens 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 47% | Amiens 38%). Note also that Amiens surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.45 xG and Amiens 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 0.988 / defence 1.078 | Amiens attack 1.057 / defence 1.115. League average goals — home 1.319 / away 1.055. Data: built from Paris FC's last 55 games and Amiens's last 55.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 42% | Draw 28% | Amiens 30%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.38 | Draw 3.63 | Amiens 3.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 54% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Paris FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — low conviction — though recent form (Paris FC's last 10 home games and Amiens's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris FC 70% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Amiens | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 18 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Saturday 11 January 2025 at 13:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 42% | Draw 28% | Amiens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 54% (No 46%) | xG Paris FC 1.45 / Amiens 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 0.988 / def 1.078 | Amiens attack 1.057 / def 1.115 | league avg home 1.319 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.45
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Amiens xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Amiens kick off?
Paris FC vs Amiens kicked off at 13:00 UK time on Saturday 11 January 2025 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Amiens?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Amiens.
Where is Paris FC vs Amiens being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Amiens part of?
Paris FC vs Amiens is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 18) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 42% chance of winning, Amiens a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Paris FC and Amiens will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris FC vs Amiens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Paris FC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Amiens's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.45 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Amiens's attack versus Paris FC's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 55 games and Amiens's last 55 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.63
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.45
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.20
Amiens xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
30%
3.33
23%
4.28
Win to Nil
13%
7.92
7%
14.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.4 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.3 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Amiens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Amiens expected to score?
The model projects 1.45 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.20 for Amiens, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Amiens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 55 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.65 PPG on a 25W 16D 14L record — D-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Amiens's form line: 19W 19D 17L from 55 games, 1.38 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Paris FC on 1.65 PPG, Amiens on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.85 PPG from their last 26 home games (14W 6D 6L).
On the road, Amiens have gone 8W 7D 11L from their last 26 away games — 1.19 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Paris FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Amiens are on 1.02 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Amiens in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Amiens
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Amiens (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Amiens
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Amiens in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 25W 16D 14L in their last 55 games (1.65 PPG), while Amiens have gone 19W 19D 17L in their last 55 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Amiens away?
Paris FC's home record (1.85 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.85 PPG; Amiens away: 1.19 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Amiens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Amiens in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 8 H2H matches in our data, going back to December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 11 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Mar 2023, when Paris FC won Paris FC 3-0 Amiens.
Paris FC's record when hosting Amiens specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Paris FC
3
Draws
0
Amiens
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Amiens?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 5, Amiens have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Amiens last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 January 2025: Paris FC 1-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Amiens?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 58%, Amiens 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Paris FC) and 42% (Amiens).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Amiens in 31%; Amiens in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Amiens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Amiens Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Amiens matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Paris FC's recent matches and 38% of Amiens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Amiens matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Paris FC's recent games and 42% of Amiens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Amiens matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Paris FC's recent matches and 73% of Amiens's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Amiens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Amiens 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.45 xG and Amiens 1.20 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Amiens landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.08 against Amiens attack 1.06 / defence 1.11, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 42% | Draw 28% | Amiens 30%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 47%, Amiens 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Amiens's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Paris FC 1.65 PPG, Amiens 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Paris FC win broke the near-deadlock. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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