Annecy 1-4 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Annecy vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18. The match kicks off on Friday 10 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Annecy (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Parc des Sports this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Parc des Sports. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Guingamp have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Annecy. A 0.50 PPG lead over Guingamp (1.80 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Annecy lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 53% versus Guingamp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 54% | Guingamp 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.68 xG and Guingamp 0.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.051 / defence 0.737 | Guingamp attack 0.902 / defence 1.198. League average goals — home 1.336 / away 1.026. Annecy's defence rating of 0.737 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 55 Annecy games / 55 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 61% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 14%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 1.64 | Draw 4.17 | Guingamp 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Annecy (61%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Annecy 30% | Guingamp 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Friday 10 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 61% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 41% | xG Annecy 1.68 / Guingamp 0.68 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 1.051 / def 0.737 | Guingamp attack 0.902 / def 1.198 | league avg home 1.336 / away 1.026 • Poisson stance: Annecy (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
0.68
Guingamp xG
41%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Guingamp kick off?
Annecy vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 January 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Guingamp?
Annecy 1 - 4 Guingamp.
Where is Annecy vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Guingamp part of?
Annecy vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 61% chance of winning, Guingamp a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Annecy and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Guingamp?
Record (5 meetings): Annecy 2W | Draws 2 | Guingamp 1W.
What form are Annecy and Guingamp in?
Annecy (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-W. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Annecy's attack rating (1.05) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.68 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (0.90x) against Annecy's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.68.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 2-0 (13.3%), 1-1 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
61%
1.63
24%
4.11
14%
6.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.36
0.68
Guingamp xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
6.92
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
51%
1.98
19%
5.38
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
3%
37.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.8 | 10.8 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.1 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Annecy and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Annecy and 0.68 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 55 outings, Annecy have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 20W 16D 19L record — L-D-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 21W 14D 20L from 55 games, 1.40 PPG, last five L-W-W-L-D. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Annecy against 1.40 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Annecy have posted 1.48 PPG from 27 outings (11W 7D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 11W 5D 11L from 27 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.29 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Guingamp in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 20W 16D 19L in their last 55 games (1.38 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 21W 14D 20L in their last 55 (1.40 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Guingamp away?
Annecy's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.48 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Annecy or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Guingamp in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Annecy
2
Draws
3
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Guingamp?
From 9 meetings on record, Annecy have won 4, Guingamp have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Guingamp 2-1 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Guingamp?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 44%, Guingamp 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Annecy) and 44% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Guingamp in 37%; Annecy have failed to score in 26% of games; Guingamp in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Annecy's recent matches and 44% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Annecy's recent games and 44% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Guingamp tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Guingamp run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Annecy 1-4 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 18, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.68 xG and Guingamp 0.68 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Guingamp outscored their 0.68 projection by 3.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 0.74 against Guingamp attack 0.90 / defence 1.20, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 61% | Draw 24% | Guingamp 14%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a Guingamp win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 54%, Guingamp 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Guingamp's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.38 PPG, Guingamp 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Guingamp (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.