Nimes 4-0 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nimes at 48% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nimes face Annecy.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nimes and Annecy meet at Stade des Antonins in Ligue 2 (matchday 29). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 1 April 2023 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Nimes have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Nimes have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 home games (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Annecy (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 points per game. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Annecy have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 1 H2H match in our data: 0 wins for Nimes, 0 for Annecy and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been tight, averaging just 0.0 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 30 Dec 2022, ended Nimes 0–0 Annecy — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Nimes half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 13 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games).
Annecy half-time and goal-timing data (last 28 games, 13 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nimes 54% versus Annecy 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nimes 43% | Annecy 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nimes 1.81 xG and Annecy 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nimes attack 1.020 / defence 1.208 | Annecy attack 1.054 / defence 1.471. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.043. Annecy's defence rating of 1.471 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Nimes's projected output up. Nimes's defence rating of 1.208 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Nimes's last 66 games and Annecy's last 28.
Result probabilities: Nimes 48% | Draw 24% | Annecy 27%. Fair-value odds: Nimes 2.08 | Draw 4.09 | Annecy 3.64. Nimes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.81 / 1.33) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nimes are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Nimes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 3.14 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Nimes's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Nimes 40% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nimes vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 29 | Venue: Stade des Antonins • Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nimes 48% | Draw 24% | Annecy 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 62% (No 38%) | xG Nimes 1.81 / Annecy 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Nimes attack 1.020 / def 1.208 | Annecy attack 1.054 / def 1.471 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Nimes (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.81
Nimes xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Annecy xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nimes vs Annecy FAQs
What time does Nimes vs Annecy kick off?
Nimes vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stade des Antonins.
What was the final score in Nimes vs Annecy?
Nimes 4 - 0 Annecy.
Where is Nimes vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade des Antonins.
What competition is Nimes vs Annecy part of?
Nimes vs Annecy is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nimes vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Nimes a 48% chance of winning, Annecy a 27% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Nimes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nimes vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Nimes and Annecy will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nimes vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nimes's attack rating (1.02) and Annecy's defence rating (1.47), the model arrives at 1.81 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.05x) against Nimes's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Nimes's last 66 games and Annecy's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.4%), 2-0 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nimes Win
48%
2.08
24%
4.09
27%
3.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
1 – 0
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.81
Nimes xG
Total xG
3.14
1.33
Annecy xG
2.08
48%
Home win
4.09
24%
Draw
3.64
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.64
Clean Sheet
27%
3.77
16%
6.11
Win to Nil
13%
7.84
4%
22.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 10.4 | 6.9 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nimes vs Annecy Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nimes vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Nimes and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.81 expected goals for Nimes and 1.33 for Annecy, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Nimes vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 28 outings, Nimes have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 7W 5D 16L record — L-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Annecy's form line: 8W 9D 11L from 28 games, 1.18 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-D.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.93 PPG for Nimes against 1.18 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nimes have posted 1.46 PPG from their last 13 home games (6W 1D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 0.93 PPG overall — Nimes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Annecy have gone 2W 6D 5L from their last 13 away games — 0.92 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nimes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nimes are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.07 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 28 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nimes
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
Nimes (Home) vs Annecy (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nimes
Current Season
Annecy
Current Season
❓ Nimes vs Annecy Form FAQs
What form are Nimes and Annecy in coming into this match?
Nimes have gone 7W 5D 16L in their last 28 games (0.93 PPG), while Annecy have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nimes at home or Annecy away?
Nimes's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nimes at home: 1.46 PPG; Annecy away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Nimes or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nimes have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Annecy in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 2 H2H matches between Nimes and Annecy, the earliest from December 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 1 April 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Nimes
1
Draws
0
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Nimes vs Annecy H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nimes and Annecy?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Nimes have won 1, Annecy have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Nimes and Annecy last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 April 2023: Nimes 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Nimes and Annecy?
Nimes have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nimes see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches.
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nimes 31%, Annecy 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Nimes) and 54% (Annecy).
On the defensive side: Nimes keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Annecy in 31%; Nimes have failed to score in 31% of games; Annecy in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nimes home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nimes vs Annecy Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nimes and Annecy matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Nimes's recent matches and 54% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nimes and Annecy matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Nimes's recent games and 54% of Annecy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nimes and Annecy matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Nimes's recent matches and 77% of Annecy's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Nimes run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Annecy.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nimes beat Annecy 4-0 at Stade des Antonins, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nimes 1.81 xG and Annecy 1.33 xG, a combined 3.14. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Nimes beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Annecy landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nimes attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Annecy attack 1.05 / defence 1.47, drawn from 66/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nimes 48% | Draw 24% | Annecy 27%, with Nimes to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nimes 43%, Annecy 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nimes's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Annecy's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nimes 0.93 PPG, Annecy 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Nimes win broke the near-deadlock. Nimes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Annecy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.54 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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