Bastia 3-2 Sochaux – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Bastia at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bastia vs Sochaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Armand-Césari plays host to Bastia versus Sochaux in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home at Stade Armand-Césari, Bastia have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Armand-Césari. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sochaux have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 5W 4D 1L. Last five: D W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Sochaux have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.00 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 3 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Bastia, 2 for Sochaux and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2022, ended 0–1 with Sochaux winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Bastia half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sochaux half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bastia 42% versus Sochaux 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bastia 30% | Sochaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bastia 1.09 xG and Sochaux 0.91 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bastia attack 1.053 / defence 0.884 | Sochaux attack 0.982 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.207 / away 1.043. Data: 66 Bastia games / 66 Sochaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bastia 38% | Draw 33% | Sochaux 29%. Fair-value odds: Bastia 2.63 | Draw 3.03 | Sochaux 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bastia are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bastia if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.99 combined xG gives a 32% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Bastia 30% | Sochaux 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bastia vs Sochaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade Armand-Césari • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bastia 38% | Draw 33% | Sochaux 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 40% | xG Bastia 1.09 / Sochaux 0.91 • Poisson strength factors: Bastia attack 1.053 / def 0.884 | Sochaux attack 0.982 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.207 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Bastia (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.09
Bastia xG
Expected Goals
0.91
Sochaux xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bastia vs Sochaux kick off?
Bastia vs Sochaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stade Armand-Césari.
What was the final score in Bastia vs Sochaux?
Bastia 3 - 2 Sochaux.
Where is Bastia vs Sochaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Armand-Césari.
What competition is Bastia vs Sochaux part of?
Bastia vs Sochaux is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Bastia vs Sochaux?
Our statistical model gives Bastia a 38% chance of winning, Sochaux a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Bastia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bastia vs Sochaux?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Bastia and Sochaux will score (BTTS).
Will Bastia vs Sochaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Sochaux?
Record (3 meetings): Bastia 0W | Draws 1 | Sochaux 2W.
What form are Bastia and Sochaux in?
Bastia (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W. Sochaux (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bastia's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Sochaux's defensive record (0.86x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.09. Flip it around — Sochaux's attack (0.98x) against Bastia's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.91.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bastia Win
38%
2.60
33%
3.07
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.8%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.6%
Draw
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.09
Bastia xG
Total xG
1.99
0.91
Sochaux xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.07
33%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.48
60%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
34%
2.97
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
10%
10.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.6 | 12.3 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.8 | 13.4 | 6.1 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bastia vs Sochaux?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Bastia and Sochaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.09 expected goals for Bastia and 0.91 for Sochaux, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Bastia vs Sochaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bastia's recent record stands at 23W 22D 21L from 66 games, a 1.38 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-W in the last five.
Sochaux, meanwhile, have gone 33W 19D 14L across 66 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-W-D-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sochaux by 0.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Bastia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bastia have managed 13W 14D 6L from 33 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sochaux's away record stands at 14W 9D 10L across 33 trips, a 1.55 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Bastia are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Sochaux are on 1.36 scored and 0.83 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games; Sochaux in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bastia
Current Season
Sochaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bastia and Sochaux in coming into this match?
Bastia have gone 23W 22D 21L in their last 66 games (1.38 PPG), while Sochaux have gone 33W 19D 14L in their last 66 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bastia at home or Sochaux away?
Bastia's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bastia at home: 1.61 PPG; Sochaux away: 1.55 PPG.
Have Bastia or Sochaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Sochaux in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 1 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bastia have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Sochaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bastia
1
Draws
2
Sochaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bastia and Sochaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Bastia have won 1, Sochaux have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bastia and Sochaux last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2023, when Bastia 3-2 Sochaux.
Who has won more matches between Bastia and Sochaux?
Sochaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bastia see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sochaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bastia 36%, Sochaux 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for Bastia and 48% for Sochaux.
On the defensive side: Bastia keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Sochaux in 39%; Bastia have failed to score in 30% of games; Sochaux in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bastia home games / Sochaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bastia play Sochaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Bastia's recent matches and 48% of Sochaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bastia vs Sochaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of Bastia's recent games and 48% of Sochaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bastia and Sochaux tend to score early?
Bastia have had a goal before half-time in 52% of their recent matches, Sochaux in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bastia edge out Sochaux 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Sochaux 3-2 at Stade Armand-Césari, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bastia 1.09 xG and Sochaux 0.91 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Bastia beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sochaux outscored their 0.91 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bastia attack 1.05 / defence 0.88 against Sochaux attack 0.98 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bastia 38% | Draw 33% | Sochaux 29%, with Bastia to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bastia 30%, Sochaux 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bastia's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Sochaux's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sochaux arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 1.38. Form was overturned, with Bastia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bastia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sochaux (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.