Martigues 1-2 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 49%, yet other data sources diverge — this Martigues vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Francis Turcan plays host to Martigues versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Martigues have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W L L W W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Martigues, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Martigues at Stade Francis Turcan this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 home games — 0.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stade Francis Turcan this season.
Estac Troyes's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Estac Troyes have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.00 PPG for Martigues against 1.40 for Estac Troyes. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Martigues have seen both teams score in just 10% of their matches, Estac Troyes in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Martigues lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–4 with Estac Troyes winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Martigues half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 36% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 62% of games.
Estac Troyes half-time and goal-timing data (21 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 27% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 52% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Martigues 24% | Estac Troyes 19%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Martigues 43% | Estac Troyes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Martigues 0.73 xG and Estac Troyes 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Martigues attack 0.610 / defence 1.286 | Estac Troyes attack 0.961 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.008. Martigues's attack strength of 0.610 is below the league average — the 0.73 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 21 Martigues games / 59 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Martigues 22% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 49%. Fair-value odds: Martigues 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Estac Troyes 2.04. Estac Troyes hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.98. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.98 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Estac Troyes at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.98 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 32% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Martigues 10% | Estac Troyes 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Martigues vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stade Francis Turcan • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Martigues 22% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 37% | xG Martigues 0.73 / Estac Troyes 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Martigues attack 0.610 / def 1.286 | Estac Troyes attack 0.961 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.008 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.73
Martigues xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Estac Troyes xG
37%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Martigues vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Martigues vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stade Francis Turcan.
What was the final score in Martigues vs Estac Troyes?
Martigues 1 - 2 Estac Troyes.
Where is Martigues vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Francis Turcan.
What competition is Martigues vs Estac Troyes part of?
Martigues vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Martigues vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Martigues a 22% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Martigues vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Martigues and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Martigues vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Estac Troyes?
Record (1 meetings): Martigues 0W | Draws 0 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Martigues and Estac Troyes in?
Martigues (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-W-W. Estac Troyes (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Martigues's attack at 0.61x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 0.73 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.96x) against Martigues's defence (1.29x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 21/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.5%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
22%
4.59
30%
3.37
49%
2.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.73
Martigues xG
Total xG
1.98
1.25
Estac Troyes xG
4.59
22%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
2.06
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
29%
3.48
48%
2.08
Win to Nil
6%
15.97
23%
4.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.9 | 17.3 | 10.8 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.6 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 4.6 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Martigues vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Martigues and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 0.73 expected goals for Martigues and 1.25 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 1.98.
How confident is the prediction model for Martigues vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 21 outings, Martigues have picked up 0.86 PPG on a 5W 3D 13L record — W-L-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Martigues is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 7W 3D 11L from 21 games, 1.14 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-W. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.86 PPG for Martigues against 1.14 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Martigues have posted 0.36 PPG from 11 outings (1W 1D 9L). That actually lags their 0.86 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 3W 1D 7L from 11 away games — 0.91 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Estac Troyes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Martigues are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.05 scored and 1.10 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues have seen both teams score in 24% of their recent games; Estac Troyes in 19%.
Defensively: Estac Troyes in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Martigues
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Martigues and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Martigues have gone 5W 3D 13L in their last 21 games (0.86 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 7W 3D 11L in their last 21 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Martigues at home or Estac Troyes away?
Estac Troyes's away record (0.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Martigues at home: 0.36 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.91 PPG.
Have Martigues or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Martigues have kept a clean sheet in 14% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Martigues
0
Draws
2
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Martigues and Estac Troyes?
From 2 meetings on record, Martigues have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Martigues and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Martigues 1-2 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Martigues and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Martigues see a goal before the break in 36% of their matches.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 9% (Martigues) and 27% (Estac Troyes) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Martigues) and 54% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes in 36%; Martigues have failed to score in 82% of games; Estac Troyes in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Martigues home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Martigues play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 9% of Martigues's recent matches and 27% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Martigues vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Martigues's recent games and 54% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Martigues and Estac Troyes tend to score early?
Martigues have had a goal before half-time in 36% of their recent matches, Estac Troyes in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Estac Troyes edge out Martigues 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Martigues 1-2 at Stade Francis Turcan, Regular Season - 22, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Martigues 0.73 xG and Estac Troyes 1.25 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Martigues attack 0.61 / defence 1.29 against Estac Troyes attack 0.96 / defence 0.92, drawn from 21/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Martigues 22% | Draw 30% | Estac Troyes 49%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Martigues 43%, Estac Troyes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 21%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Martigues's trading profile (21 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (21 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 19% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Martigues 0.86 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.91 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.