Lorient 3-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lorient at 61%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lorient vs Guingamp fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Lorient welcome Guingamp to Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Lorient have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Lorient, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lorient's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across 10 games at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.60. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 5W 1D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (Lorient) versus 1.30 (Guingamp). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Trading Patterns
Lorient in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 54% versus Guingamp 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 63% | Guingamp 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 2.07 xG and Guingamp 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 1.444 / defence 1.145 | Guingamp attack 0.811 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.434 / away 1.108. Lorient carry an above-average attack strength of 1.444 — their λ of 2.07 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 12 Lorient games / 50 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lorient 61% | Draw 21% | Guingamp 18%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | Guingamp 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Lorient (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.10. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.10 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lorient are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.10 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral: Lorient 50% | Guingamp 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 61% | Draw 21% | Guingamp 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 56% | xG Lorient 2.07 / Guingamp 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 1.444 / def 1.145 | Guingamp attack 0.811 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.434 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Lorient (61%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.07
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Guingamp xG
56%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lorient vs Guingamp kick off?
Lorient vs Guingamp kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Guingamp?
Lorient 3 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Lorient vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What competition is Lorient vs Guingamp part of?
Lorient vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 61% chance of winning, Guingamp a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Lorient the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lorient and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Lorient vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Guingamp?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lorient and Guingamp in?
Lorient (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
What do the betting odds say about Lorient vs Guingamp?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lorient's attack rating (1.44) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 2.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Guingamp's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lorient Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.86
18%
5.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.07
Lorient xG
Total xG
3.10
1.03
Guingamp xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
5.56
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
36%
2.80
13%
7.96
Win to Nil
22%
4.56
2%
44.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are Lorient and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 2.07 expected goals for Lorient and 1.03 for Guingamp, a combined total of 3.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Guingamp?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, Lorient have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 14W 10D 22L record — W-W-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Lorient is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 17W 12D 17L from 46 games, 1.37 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lorient on 1.13 PPG, Guingamp on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Lorient have posted 1.41 PPG from 22 outings (9W 4D 9L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 9W 4D 9L from 22 away games — 1.41 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Lorient are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.22 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lorient and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 games (1.13 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 17W 12D 17L in their last 46 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Guingamp away?
Lorient's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.41 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.41 PPG.
Have Lorient or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lorient have kept a clean sheet in 15% of their recent games, Guingamp in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lorient and Guingamp runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Lorient
0
Draws
0
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Guingamp?
From 2 meetings on record, Lorient have won 2, Guingamp have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2025, when Guingamp 1-2 Lorient.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Guingamp?
Lorient have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 59%, Guingamp 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 68% (Lorient) and 41% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Guingamp in 36%; Guingamp in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lorient play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lorient's recent matches and 41% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lorient vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 68% of Lorient's recent games and 41% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lorient and Guingamp tend to score early?
Lorient have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lorient cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lorient beat Guingamp 3-1 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 13, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 2.07 xG and Guingamp 1.03 xG, a combined 3.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lorient beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 1.44 / defence 1.15 against Guingamp attack 0.81 / defence 1.00, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 61% | Draw 21% | Guingamp 18%, with Lorient to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 63%, Guingamp 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Guingamp's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.13 PPG, Guingamp 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lorient win broke the near-deadlock. Lorient (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.86 average — above their attacking norm. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.