Guingamp vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Guingamp at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Rodez — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Rodez, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Rodez away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Guingamp at 0.80 PPG versus Rodez's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Guingamp: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Rodez, with 5 draws across those contests.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Guingamp a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (43 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.

Rodez trading profile (43 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 54% and Rodez 70% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 58% | Rodez 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.74 xG and Rodez 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.050 / defence 1.181 | Rodez attack 1.000 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.365 / away 1.317. Rodez bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Guingamp's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Guingamp games / 42 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 42% | Draw 24% | Rodez 34%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.38 | Draw 4.17 | Rodez 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.29. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.29 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 50% | Rodez 60% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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