Guingamp vs Rodez – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Rodez at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Rodez encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Guingamp welcome Rodez to Stade de Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Friday 20 November 2026 at 19:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Guingamp have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Guingamp's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stade de Roudourou this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade de Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Rodez — All Games: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rodez have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Rodez away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Rodez — 1.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Guingamp: 4 wins from 10 previous clashes against 1 for Rodez, with 5 draws across those contests.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.

The historical record gives Guingamp a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Data

Guingamp trading profile (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

Rodez trading profile (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Guingamp 50% and Rodez 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 55% | Rodez 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.51 xG and Rodez 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.097 / defence 1.075 | Rodez attack 1.235 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.253. Rodez have an above-average attack strength of 1.235 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Guingamp games / 38 Rodez games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 33% | Draw 26% | Rodez 40%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 3.03 | Draw 3.85 | Rodez 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.51 / 1.66) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Our Verdict

Guingamp dominate the H2H record, yet Rodez are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma. Form averages suggest only ~1.8 goals/game but Poisson projects Over 2.5 at 61% — underlying attack/defence strengths imply more goals than surface form shows.

Poisson rates Rodez as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rodez offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 30% | Rodez 60%.

Multiple data sources are pointing in different directions on the likely outcome — reduce stake size to reflect the analytical uncertainty. The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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