Guingamp 2-2 Quevilly – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Quevilly encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 11 as Guingamp welcome Quevilly to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 October 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Guingamp stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade du Roudourou, Guingamp have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Quevilly — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Quevilly, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Quevilly's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Guingamp are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 0.90 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Guingamp, 2 for Quevilly and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2023, ended 0–2 with Quevilly winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Quevilly in-play and half-time data (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 52% versus Quevilly 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 48% | Quevilly 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.70 xG and Quevilly 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.183 / defence 0.892 | Quevilly attack 1.030 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.075. Data: 48 Guingamp games / 48 Quevilly games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 54% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 22%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.85 | Draw 4.17 | Quevilly 4.55. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
Quevilly lead the H2H ledger, but Guingamp carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 40% | Quevilly 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Quevilly | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Oct 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 54% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 51% | xG Guingamp 1.70 / Quevilly 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.183 / def 0.892 | Quevilly attack 1.030 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.075 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Quevilly xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Quevilly kick off?
Guingamp vs Quevilly kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 21 October 2023 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Guingamp 2 - 2 Quevilly.
Where is Guingamp vs Quevilly being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Quevilly part of?
Guingamp vs Quevilly is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 54% chance of winning, Quevilly a 22% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Guingamp and Quevilly will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Quevilly have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Quevilly?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 0W | Draws 2 | Quevilly 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Quevilly in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-W-D. Quevilly (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.18) and Quevilly's defence rating (1.12), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Quevilly's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
54%
1.85
24%
4.16
22%
4.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.69
0.99
Quevilly xG
1.85
54%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.56
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
37%
2.69
18%
5.46
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
4%
24.86
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Quevilly expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.99 for Quevilly, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Quevilly?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 48 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 19W 13D 16L record — W-L-D-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Quevilly's form line: 13W 17D 18L from 48 games, 1.17 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-D. The sample for Quevilly is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.46 PPG, Quevilly on 1.17. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.38 PPG from 24 outings (9W 6D 9L).
On the road, Quevilly have gone 7W 6D 11L from 24 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Guingamp are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Quevilly are on 1.17 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Quevilly
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Quevilly in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 19W 13D 16L in their last 48 games (1.46 PPG), while Quevilly have gone 13W 17D 18L in their last 48 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Quevilly away?
Guingamp's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.38 PPG; Quevilly away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Quevilly been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Quevilly in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Guingamp and Quevilly runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 13 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Guingamp's record when hosting Quevilly specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Guingamp
3
Draws
2
Quevilly
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Quevilly?
From 6 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Quevilly have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Quevilly last play each other?
They last met on 13 January 2024, when Quevilly 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Quevilly?
Quevilly have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Quevilly see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 46%, Quevilly 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Guingamp) and 38% (Quevilly).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Quevilly in 38%; Guingamp have failed to score in 33% of games; Quevilly in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Quevilly away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Quevilly?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Guingamp's recent matches and 33% of Quevilly's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Quevilly usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Guingamp's recent games and 38% of Quevilly's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Quevilly tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Quevilly in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Quevilly share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 11, as Guingamp and Quevilly drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.70 xG and Quevilly 0.99 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Quevilly outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 0.89 against Quevilly attack 1.03 / defence 1.12, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 54% | Draw 24% | Quevilly 22%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 48%, Quevilly 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Quevilly's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.46 PPG, Quevilly 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Quevilly (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.