Guingamp 1-1 Dunkerque – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Guingamp vs Dunkerque encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Dunkerque meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 4 January 2025 at 13:00 UTC.
Form
Guingamp (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's home record at Stade du Roudourou: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Dunkerque have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Dunkerque, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dunkerque away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.50 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Guingamp 3W, Dunkerque 1W, 0D.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Guingamp — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Dunkerque — key trading statistics (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 41% versus Dunkerque 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Dunkerque 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.94 xG and Dunkerque 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.250 / defence 0.930 | Dunkerque attack 1.009 / defence 1.144. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.047. Data: 54 Guingamp games / 54 Dunkerque games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 60% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 19%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Dunkerque 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Guingamp (60%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.92 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 40% | Dunkerque 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Dunkerque | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Jan 2025, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 60% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 54% | xG Guingamp 1.94 / Dunkerque 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.250 / def 0.930 | Dunkerque attack 1.009 / def 1.144 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dunkerque xG
54%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Dunkerque kick off?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 4 January 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Guingamp 1 - 1 Dunkerque.
Where is Guingamp vs Dunkerque being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Dunkerque part of?
Guingamp vs Dunkerque is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 60% chance of winning, Dunkerque a 19% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Guingamp and Dunkerque will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Dunkerque have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 3W | Draws 0 | Dunkerque 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in?
Guingamp (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Dunkerque (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.25) and Dunkerque's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dunkerque's attack (1.01x) against Guingamp's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
60%
1.68
22%
4.61
19%
5.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.92
0.98
Dunkerque xG
1.68
60%
Home win
4.61
22%
Draw
5.36
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.87
46%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
37%
2.67
14%
6.95
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
3%
37.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 10.3 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Dunkerque expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.98 for Dunkerque, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Dunkerque?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 54 games, going 21W 13D 20L for 1.41 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dunkerque sit at 1.43 PPG from 54 outings (22W 11D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Dunkerque is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.41 PPG for Guingamp against 1.43 for Dunkerque. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Dunkerque have taken 1.42 points per game from 26 outings (10W 7D 9L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Dunkerque are on 1.15 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Dunkerque
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Dunkerque in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 21W 13D 20L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Dunkerque have gone 22W 11D 21L in their last 54 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Dunkerque away?
Guingamp's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.46 PPG; Dunkerque away: 1.42 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Dunkerque been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Dunkerque in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 9 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 6 February 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dunkerque — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Guingamp
2
Draws
3
Dunkerque
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
From 9 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 4, Dunkerque have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Dunkerque last play each other?
They last met on 6 February 2026, when Dunkerque 0-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Dunkerque?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Dunkerque see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 38%, Dunkerque 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Guingamp) and 42% (Dunkerque).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Dunkerque in 31%; Guingamp have failed to score in 31% of games; Dunkerque in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Dunkerque away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Dunkerque?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Guingamp's recent matches and 50% of Dunkerque's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Dunkerque usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Guingamp's recent games and 42% of Dunkerque's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Dunkerque tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Dunkerque in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Dunkerque share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 17, as Guingamp and Dunkerque drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.94 xG and Dunkerque 0.98 xG, a combined 2.92. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Guingamp fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Dunkerque attack 1.01 / defence 1.14, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 60% | Draw 22% | Dunkerque 19%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Dunkerque 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Dunkerque's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.41 PPG, Dunkerque 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.