Guingamp 0-1 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Bastia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 33 as Guingamp welcome Bastia to Stade du Roudourou. Kick-off is set for Saturday 20 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Guingamp — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 4D 3L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bastia stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L L W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Bastia have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Guingamp) versus 1.70 (Bastia). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Guingamp, 1 for Bastia and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Guingamp in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Bastia in-play and half-time data (70 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 46% versus Bastia 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 44% | Bastia 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.30 xG and Bastia 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 0.985 / defence 0.921 | Bastia attack 1.080 / defence 1.131. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.182. Data: 70 Guingamp games / 70 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 38% | Draw 30% | Bastia 32%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | Bastia 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Guingamp at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Guingamp offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.47 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 40% | Bastia 50%.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 20 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 38% | Draw 30% | Bastia 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 52% | xG Guingamp 1.30 / Bastia 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 0.985 / def 0.921 | Bastia attack 1.080 / def 1.131 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Bastia xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Bastia kick off?
Guingamp vs Bastia kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Guingamp 0 - 1 Bastia.
Where is Guingamp vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Bastia part of?
Guingamp vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 38% chance of winning, Bastia a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Guingamp and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
Record (5 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 3 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Bastia (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Guingamp's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Bastia's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Guingamp's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
38%
2.62
30%
3.37
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.47
1.18
Bastia xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
31%
3.24
27%
3.67
Win to Nil
12%
8.49
9%
11.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 9.9 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.9 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.6 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.18 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 70 outings, Guingamp have picked up 1.46 PPG on a 27W 21D 22L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Bastia's form line: 28W 17D 25L from 70 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Guingamp on 1.46 PPG, Bastia on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Guingamp have posted 1.35 PPG from 34 outings (12W 10D 12L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 9W 9D 16L from 34 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Guingamp are averaging 1.27 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.24 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Current Season
Bastia
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Bastia in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 27W 21D 22L in their last 70 games (1.46 PPG), while Bastia have gone 28W 17D 25L in their last 70 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Bastia away?
Guingamp's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.35 PPG; Bastia away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Bastia in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Guingamp's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 0W 2D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Guingamp
4
Draws
4
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Bastia have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 2 May 2026, when Guingamp 0-1 Bastia.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Bastia?
Bastia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 44%, Bastia 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Guingamp) and 41% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 35% of games; Bastia in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Guingamp's recent matches and 47% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Guingamp's recent games and 41% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Bastia tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Bastia in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bastia defy the odds to beat Guingamp 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bastia beat Guingamp 0-1 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.30 xG and Bastia 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Guingamp fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 0.98 / defence 0.92 against Bastia attack 1.08 / defence 1.13, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 38% | Draw 30% | Bastia 32%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Bastia win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 44%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (70 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bastia's trading profile (70 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.46 PPG, Bastia 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bastia win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. Bastia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.47 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.