Angers 2-1 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Angers at 54% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Angers face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Angers host Estac Troyes at Stade Raymond Kopa in Ligue 2 (matchday 33). Kick-off is Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Angers stand at 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Angers's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Angers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Estac Troyes — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Angers at 1.20 PPG versus Estac Troyes's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 3 wins for Angers, 1 for Estac Troyes and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 16 Dec 2023, ended Angers 4–1 Estac Troyes — a Angers win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.4 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Angers in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play and half-time data (last 70 games, 35 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Angers 50% versus Estac Troyes 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Angers 54% | Estac Troyes 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Angers 1.55 xG and Estac Troyes 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Angers attack 1.146 / defence 1.143 | Estac Troyes attack 0.587 / defence 1.159. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.182. Estac Troyes's attack rating of 0.587 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.79. Data: built from Angers's last 32 games and Estac Troyes's last 32.
Result probabilities: Angers 54% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18%. Fair-value odds: Angers 1.85 | Draw 3.58 | Estac Troyes 5.57. Angers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Angers are the pick at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Angers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.34 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Angers 50% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Angers vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 33 | Venue: Stade Raymond Kopa • Kick-off: Saturday 20 April 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Angers 54% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Angers 1.55 / Estac Troyes 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Angers attack 1.146 / def 1.143 | Estac Troyes attack 0.587 / def 1.159 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.182 • Poisson stance: Angers (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Angers xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Estac Troyes xG
44%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Angers vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Angers vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Angers vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Saturday 20 April 2024 at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What was the final score in Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Angers 2 - 1 Estac Troyes.
Where is Angers vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Raymond Kopa.
What competition is Angers vs Estac Troyes part of?
Angers vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 33) (France).
Who is favourite to win Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Angers a 54% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Angers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Angers and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Angers vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Angers's attack rating (1.15) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.55 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Angers's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Angers's last 32 games and Estac Troyes's last 32 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 2-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Angers Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.58
18%
5.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Angers xG
Total xG
2.34
0.79
Estac Troyes xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
5.57
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
25%
4.08
4%
26.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 7.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.9 | 11.8 | 4.7 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 9.1 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Angers vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Angers and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Angers and 0.79 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Angers vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Angers's recent record stands at 20W 13D 37L from 70 games, a 1.04 PPG return, with D-L-W-D-D in the last five.
Estac Troyes, meanwhile, have gone 12W 23D 35L across 70 games — 0.84 PPG, with W-D-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Angers on 1.04 PPG, Estac Troyes on 0.84. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Angers have managed 14W 6D 15L from their last 35 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Estac Troyes's away record stands at 4W 10D 21L across their last 35 away games, a 0.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Angers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Angers are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.16 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 64%.
Last 70 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Angers
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
Angers (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Angers
Current Season
Estac Troyes
Current Season
❓ Angers vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Angers and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Angers have gone 20W 13D 37L in their last 70 games (1.04 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 12W 23D 35L in their last 70 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Angers at home or Estac Troyes away?
Angers's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Angers at home: 1.37 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
Angers have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 16 Dec 2023, when Angers won Estac Troyes 1-4 Angers.
Angers's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 4W 0D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Angers
1
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Angers vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Angers and Estac Troyes?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Angers have won 5, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Angers and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Angers 2-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Angers and Estac Troyes?
Angers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Angers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Angers 60%, Estac Troyes 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Angers and 60% for Estac Troyes. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 23% and 49% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Angers keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 37%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Angers home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Angers vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Angers and Estac Troyes matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Angers's games and 60% of Estac Troyes's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Angers and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Angers's matches and 60% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Angers and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Angers's recent matches and 69% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Angers edge out Estac Troyes 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Angers beat Estac Troyes 2-1 at Stade Raymond Kopa, Regular Season - 33, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Angers 1.55 xG and Estac Troyes 0.79 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Angers attack 1.15 / defence 1.14 against Estac Troyes attack 0.59 / defence 1.16, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Angers 54% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 18%, with Angers to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Angers 54%, Estac Troyes 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Angers's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Angers 1.04 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Angers win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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