Guingamp 2-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Guingamp at 37%, yet in-form Annecy provide a compelling counter-argument — this Guingamp vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Guingamp and Annecy meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 12:00 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Guingamp have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L W L D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Guingamp are significantly better at Stade du Roudourou than their overall form suggests.

Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Annecy's form when playing away from home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Annecy arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 8 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Guingamp, 4 for Annecy and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.6 goals per game across 8 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Annecy winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 51% versus Annecy 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 56% | Annecy 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.44 xG and Annecy 1.43 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.092 / defence 1.085 | Annecy attack 1.069 / defence 1.053. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.235. Data: 39 Guingamp games / 39 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Guingamp 37% | Draw 27% | Annecy 37%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.70 | Draw 3.70 | Annecy 2.70. The draw (27%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 27% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.88 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Guingamp 30% | Annecy 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.

The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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