Estac Troyes 2-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Estac Troyes at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Estac Troyes face Bastia.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Bastia travel to Stade de l'Aube to take on Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 25). The game is scheduled for Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Estac Troyes — last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 2D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Bastia stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D D W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Bastia have gone 1W 5D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Estac Troyes at 1.20 PPG versus Bastia's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Estac Troyes have won 1, Bastia 1, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 13 Sep 2024, ended Estac Troyes 0–0 Bastia — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Estac Troyes trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Bastia trading profile (last 62 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 39%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 45% versus Bastia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 52% | Bastia 40%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Estac Troyes surrender their half-time lead 40% of the time, while Bastia have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.13 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 0.962 / defence 0.891 | Bastia attack 0.914 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.219 / away 1.057. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 62 games and Bastia's last 62.
Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 31% | Bastia 28%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 2.40 | Draw 3.27 | Bastia 3.61. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 39% | Total xG 1.99. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 1.99 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 61% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Estac Troyes are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Estac Troyes offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.99 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and Bastia's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 61%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 10% (last 10 home games) | Bastia 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Estac Troyes vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 25 | Venue: Stade de l'Aube • Kick-off: Friday 28 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 31% | Bastia 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 39% (No 61%) | xG Estac Troyes 1.13 / Bastia 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Estac Troyes attack 0.962 / def 0.891 | Bastia attack 0.914 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.219 / away 1.057 • Poisson stance: Estac Troyes (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bastia xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia FAQs
What time does Estac Troyes vs Bastia kick off?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 28 February 2025 at Stade de l'Aube.
What was the final score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Estac Troyes 2 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Estac Troyes vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Aube.
What competition is Estac Troyes vs Bastia part of?
Estac Troyes vs Bastia is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 25) (France).
Who is favourite to win Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Estac Troyes a 42% chance of winning, Bastia a 28% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Estac Troyes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Estac Troyes and Bastia will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (61%).
Will Estac Troyes vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Estac Troyes's attack rating (0.96) and Bastia's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Bastia's attack versus Estac Troyes's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Estac Troyes's last 62 games and Bastia's last 62 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 1-0 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Estac Troyes Win
42%
2.40
31%
3.27
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Estac Troyes xG
Total xG
1.99
0.86
Bastia xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
59%
Over 1.5
1.69
41%
Under 1.5
2.44
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.56
61%
BTTS No
1.64
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
18%
5.67
9%
11.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.7 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.4%.
How many goals are Estac Troyes and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Estac Troyes and 0.86 for Bastia, a combined total of 1.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Estac Troyes vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Estac Troyes's recent record stands at 17W 18D 27L from 62 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-L in the last five.
Bastia, meanwhile, have gone 21W 22D 19L across 62 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-D-W-D-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Estac Troyes on 1.11 PPG, Bastia on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Estac Troyes have managed 11W 7D 12L from their last 30 home games — 1.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bastia's away record stands at 8W 9D 13L across their last 30 away games, a 1.10 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Estac Troyes are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Bastia in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bastia
Blended
Estac Troyes (Home) vs Bastia (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Estac Troyes
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia Form FAQs
What form are Estac Troyes and Bastia in coming into this match?
Estac Troyes have gone 17W 18D 27L in their last 62 games (1.11 PPG), while Bastia have gone 21W 22D 19L in their last 62 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Estac Troyes at home or Bastia away?
Estac Troyes's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Estac Troyes at home: 1.33 PPG; Bastia away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Estac Troyes or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Estac Troyes have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Bastia in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 6 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2023. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 16 February 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes's record when hosting Bastia specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Estac Troyes
2
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Estac Troyes have won 3, Bastia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Estac Troyes and Bastia last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 February 2026: Bastia 0-0 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Estac Troyes and Bastia?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Estac Troyes 50%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Estac Troyes) and 37% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Estac Troyes have failed to score in 33% of games; Bastia in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Estac Troyes home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Estac Troyes vs Bastia Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Estac Troyes and Bastia matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Estac Troyes and Bastia matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Estac Troyes's recent games and 37% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Estac Troyes and Bastia matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of Estac Troyes's recent matches and 73% of Bastia's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Estac Troyes cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Bastia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Bastia 2-0 at Stade de l'Aube, Regular Season - 25, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Estac Troyes 1.13 xG and Bastia 0.86 xG, a combined 1.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Estac Troyes beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Bastia landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Estac Troyes attack 0.96 / defence 0.89 against Bastia attack 0.91 / defence 0.96, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Estac Troyes 42% | Draw 31% | Bastia 28%, with Estac Troyes to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Estac Troyes 52%, Bastia 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Estac Troyes's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not.
Bastia's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Estac Troyes 1.11 PPG, Bastia 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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