Paris FC 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Paris FC at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Paris FC face Estac Troyes.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Paris FC and Estac Troyes meet at Stade Charléty in Ligue 2 (matchday 24). This fixture gets under way on Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Paris FC have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Paris FC at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Estac Troyes (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Estac Troyes's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 1D 5L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated the 3 H2H matches in our data: 2 wins for Paris FC, 0 for Estac Troyes and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.3 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 21 Oct 2024, ended Paris FC 3–0 Estac Troyes — a Paris FC win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.3 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Paris FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 44%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Estac Troyes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 61 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 40%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris FC 49% versus Estac Troyes 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris FC 48% | Estac Troyes 52%). Note also that Estac Troyes surrender HT leads in 40% of cases while Paris FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 44% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris FC 1.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris FC attack 1.293 / defence 0.986 | Estac Troyes attack 0.980 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.238 / away 1.086. Paris FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.293 — their 1.56 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Paris FC's last 61 games and Estac Troyes's last 61.
Result probabilities: Paris FC 49% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 26%. Fair-value odds: Paris FC 2.03 | Draw 3.95 | Estac Troyes 3.92. Paris FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris FC at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Paris FC 60% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris FC vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 24 | Venue: Stade Charléty • Kick-off: Friday 21 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris FC 49% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Paris FC 1.56 / Estac Troyes 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Paris FC attack 1.293 / def 0.986 | Estac Troyes attack 0.980 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.238 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Paris FC (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.56
Paris FC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Estac Troyes xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris FC vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Paris FC vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Paris FC vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 21 February 2025 at Stade Charléty.
What was the final score in Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Paris FC 1 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Paris FC vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Charléty.
What competition is Paris FC vs Estac Troyes part of?
Paris FC vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 24) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Paris FC a 49% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 26% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Paris FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Paris FC and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris FC vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris FC's attack rating (1.29) and Estac Troyes's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.56 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.98x) against Paris FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from Paris FC's last 61 games and Estac Troyes's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.9%), 2-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris FC Win
49%
2.03
25%
3.95
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.56
Paris FC xG
Total xG
2.61
1.05
Estac Troyes xG
2.03
49%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
21%
4.77
Win to Nil
17%
5.82
5%
18.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 7.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.0 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.4 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.9 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris FC vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Paris FC and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.56 expected goals for Paris FC and 1.05 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris FC vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 61 outings, Paris FC have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 29W 16D 16L record — L-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Estac Troyes's form line: 17W 18D 26L from 61 games, 1.13 PPG, last five L-L-W-W-L.
Put side by side, Paris FC are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Estac Troyes.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Paris FC have posted 1.97 PPG from their last 29 home games (17W 6D 6L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 6W 9D 14L from their last 29 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.10 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris FC
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Paris FC (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris FC
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Paris FC vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Paris FC and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Paris FC have gone 29W 16D 16L in their last 61 games (1.69 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 17W 18D 26L in their last 61 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris FC at home or Estac Troyes away?
Paris FC's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris FC at home: 1.97 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Paris FC or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris FC have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Paris FC and Estac Troyes, the earliest from October 2023. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris FC won Estac Troyes 0-3 Paris FC on 21 Oct 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Paris FC
2
Draws
0
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris FC vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris FC and Estac Troyes?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris FC have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Paris FC and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Estac Troyes 0-0 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Paris FC and Estac Troyes?
Paris FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 54% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris FC 59%, Estac Troyes 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Paris FC) and 45% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Paris FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 31%; Estac Troyes in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris FC home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris FC vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris FC and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Paris FC's recent matches and 41% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris FC and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Paris FC's recent games and 45% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris FC and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Paris FC's recent matches and 62% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Paris FC edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Paris FC beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Stade Charléty, Regular Season - 24, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Paris FC 1.56 xG and Estac Troyes 1.05 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Paris FC attack 1.29 / defence 0.99 against Estac Troyes attack 0.98 / defence 0.97, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Paris FC 49% | Draw 25% | Estac Troyes 26%, with Paris FC to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Paris FC 48%, Estac Troyes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Paris FC's trading profile (61 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (61 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Paris FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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