Estac Troyes 1-1 Annecy – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Annecy at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Estac Troyes vs Annecy encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Annecy make the trip to Stade de l'Aube to face Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 38). The match kicks off on Friday 17 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Estac Troyes have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Estac Troyes's form when playing at home: 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Annecy's record over their last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L (2.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Annecy have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

On a straight form reading, Annecy are the stronger side — 1.10 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) — Estac Troyes have seen both teams score in 90% of their games, Annecy in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Estac Troyes 0–0 Annecy — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Estac Troyes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 78% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 70% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 31% of games.

Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 75 games, 37 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 22 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 41%; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Estac Troyes 65% versus Annecy 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Estac Troyes 57% | Annecy 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Estac Troyes 1.27 xG and Annecy 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Estac Troyes attack 1.070 / defence 1.267 | Annecy attack 1.345 / defence 0.955. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Annecy have an above-average attack rating of 1.345, which lifts their away xG to 1.99. Estac Troyes's defence rating of 1.267 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Estac Troyes's last 37 games and Annecy's last 75.

Result probabilities: Estac Troyes 24% | Draw 23% | Annecy 53%. Fair-value odds: Estac Troyes 4.23 | Draw 4.36 | Annecy 1.87. Annecy hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.27 / 1.99) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Annecy are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.27 combined xG gives a 63% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Estac Troyes's last 10 home games and Annecy's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Estac Troyes 90% (last 10 home games) | Annecy 60% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights