Quevilly 2-1 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Saint Etienne (53%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Quevilly face Saint Etienne.

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Full Analysis

Stade Robert Diochon plays host to Quevilly versus Saint Etienne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 38. Kick-off: Friday 17 May 2024 at 19:45 UTC.

Current Form

Quevilly's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 1W 6D 3L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D D D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters this season, Quevilly have posted 2W 4D 4L at Stade Robert Diochon — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Saint Etienne (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.30 points per game. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.60. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Saint Etienne's away record: 5W 3D 2L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

Saint Etienne arrive in superior form — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Head-to-Head

Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Quevilly 0W, Saint Etienne 2W, 1D.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.3 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Aug 2023, ended 1–2 with Saint Etienne winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Quevilly half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Saint Etienne half-time and goal-timing data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Quevilly 55% versus Saint Etienne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Quevilly 49% | Saint Etienne 45%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Quevilly 1.09 xG and Saint Etienne 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Quevilly attack 1.100 / defence 1.322 | Saint Etienne attack 1.148 / defence 0.792. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.168. Saint Etienne's defence strength of 0.792 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 75 Quevilly games / 75 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Quevilly 22% | Draw 25% | Saint Etienne 53%. Fair-value odds: Quevilly 4.55 | Draw 4.00 | Saint Etienne 1.89. Saint Etienne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.86. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.86 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Saint Etienne as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne if the outright odds are short.

The Poisson model projects 2.86 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 4.3 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Quevilly 70% | Saint Etienne 10% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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