Clermont Foot 2-1 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Clermont Foot vs Grenoble fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade Gabriel Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus Grenoble in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Friday 22 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Clermont Foot have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D W L D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Clermont Foot have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stade Gabriel Montpied — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Grenoble (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: W W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Grenoble have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grenoble's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Clermont Foot, 1.10 for Grenoble — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Clermont Foot 0W, Grenoble 1W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Mar 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 53% versus Grenoble 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 36% | Grenoble 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.26 xG and Grenoble 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.794 / defence 0.887 | Grenoble attack 0.997 / defence 1.082. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.156. Clermont Foot's attack strength of 0.794 is below the league average — the 1.26 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 36 Clermont Foot games / 36 Grenoble games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 29%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.44 | Draw 3.23 | Grenoble 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Clermont Foot as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Clermont Foot 50% | Grenoble 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Clermont Foot vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stade Gabriel Montpied • Kick-off: Friday 22 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 47% | xG Clermont Foot 1.26 / Grenoble 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Clermont Foot attack 0.794 / def 0.887 | Grenoble attack 0.997 / def 1.082 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Clermont Foot (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Clermont Foot xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Grenoble xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Clermont Foot vs Grenoble kick off?
Clermont Foot vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 22 August 2025 at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What was the final score in Clermont Foot vs Grenoble?
Clermont Foot 2 - 1 Grenoble.
Where is Clermont Foot vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Gabriel Montpied.
What competition is Clermont Foot vs Grenoble part of?
Clermont Foot vs Grenoble is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Clermont Foot vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Clermont Foot a 41% chance of winning, Grenoble a 29% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Clermont Foot the favourite.
Will both teams score in Clermont Foot vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Clermont Foot and Grenoble will score (BTTS).
Will Clermont Foot vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Grenoble?
Record (2 meetings): Clermont Foot 0W | Draws 1 | Grenoble 1W.
What form are Clermont Foot and Grenoble in?
Clermont Foot (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-D-D. Grenoble (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Clermont Foot's attack at 0.79x the league average against Grenoble's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (1.00x) against Clermont Foot's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
The sample (36/36 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.9%), 1-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Clermont Foot Win
41%
2.46
31%
3.27
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Clermont Foot xG
Total xG
2.29
1.02
Grenoble xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
28%
3.54
Win to Nil
15%
6.84
8%
12.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.3 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Clermont Foot vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Clermont Foot and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Clermont Foot and 1.02 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Clermont Foot vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Clermont Foot come into this having played 36 games, going 7W 13D 16L for 0.94 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-D. It's still early in the season for Clermont Foot, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.31 PPG from 36 outings (13W 8D 15L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Grenoble, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.94 PPG for Clermont Foot against 1.31 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Clermont Foot's home form reads 3W 8D 7L across 18 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 0.94 points per game from 18 outings (5W 2D 11L).
Attack vs Defence
Clermont Foot are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.25 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Clermont Foot
Early Season
Grenoble
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Clermont Foot and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Clermont Foot have gone 7W 13D 16L in their last 36 games (0.94 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 13W 8D 15L in their last 36 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Clermont Foot at home or Grenoble away?
Clermont Foot's home record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Clermont Foot at home: 0.94 PPG; Grenoble away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Grenoble won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Clermont Foot have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Clermont Foot
2
Draws
1
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Clermont Foot and Grenoble?
From 4 meetings on record, Clermont Foot have won 1, Grenoble have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Clermont Foot and Grenoble last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Grenoble 2-2 Clermont Foot.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Clermont Foot are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Clermont Foot 56%, Grenoble 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 22% (Clermont Foot) and 61% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Clermont Foot have failed to score in 44% of games; Grenoble in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Clermont Foot home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Clermont Foot play Grenoble?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Clermont Foot's recent matches and 44% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Clermont Foot vs Grenoble usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 22% of Clermont Foot's recent games and 61% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Clermont Foot and Grenoble tend to score early?
Clermont Foot have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Grenoble in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Clermont Foot edge out Grenoble 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Clermont Foot beat Grenoble 2-1 at Stade Gabriel Montpied, Regular Season - 3, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Clermont Foot 1.26 xG and Grenoble 1.02 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Clermont Foot attack 0.79 / defence 0.89 against Grenoble attack 1.00 / defence 1.08, drawn from 36/36 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Clermont Foot 41% | Draw 31% | Grenoble 29%, with Clermont Foot to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Clermont Foot 36%, Grenoble 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Clermont Foot's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Grenoble's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Clermont Foot 0.94 PPG, Grenoble 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Clermont Foot win broke the near-deadlock. Clermont Foot (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.89 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.