Caen 0-1 Guingamp – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Guingamp at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Caen vs Guingamp encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Guingamp make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20. The match kicks off on Friday 24 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 2W 1D 7L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Caen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Caen have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stade Michel d'Ornano — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Guingamp have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W L D W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Guingamp's form when playing away from home: 4W 0D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Guingamp are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.90 vs 0.70). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Caen lead 3W to 4W over the last 7 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2024, ended 1–3 with Guingamp winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Caen — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Guingamp — key trading statistics (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 47% versus Guingamp 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 49% | Guingamp 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.21 xG and Guingamp 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.822 / defence 1.109 | Guingamp attack 1.200 / defence 1.132. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 1.014. Data: 57 Caen games / 57 Guingamp games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 33% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 40%. Fair-value odds: Caen 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Guingamp 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.56. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.56 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Guingamp are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.56 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Caen 40% | Guingamp 60%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Guingamp | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Friday 24 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 33% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Caen 1.21 / Guingamp 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.822 / def 1.109 | Guingamp attack 1.200 / def 1.132 | league avg home 1.296 / away 1.014 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.21
Caen xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Guingamp xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Guingamp kick off?
Caen vs Guingamp kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 24 January 2025 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Caen 0 - 1 Guingamp.
Where is Caen vs Guingamp being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Guingamp part of?
Caen vs Guingamp is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Guingamp?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 33% chance of winning, Guingamp a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Guingamp?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Caen and Guingamp will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Guingamp have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
Record (7 meetings): Caen 3W | Draws 0 | Guingamp 4W.
What form are Caen and Guingamp in?
Caen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Guingamp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Caen's attack rating (0.82) and Guingamp's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.21 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Guingamp's attack (1.20x) against Caen's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
33%
3.00
27%
3.76
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.21
Caen xG
Total xG
2.56
1.35
Guingamp xG
3.00
33%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
30%
3.34
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
12%
8.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.8 | 10.5 | 7.1 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.6 | 8.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.6 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Guingamp?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Caen and Guingamp expected to score?
The model projects 1.21 expected goals for Caen and 1.35 for Guingamp, a combined total of 2.56.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Guingamp?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 57 outings, Caen have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 21W 10D 26L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Caen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Guingamp's form line: 23W 14D 20L from 57 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-D-W-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Caen against 1.46 for Guingamp. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Caen have posted 1.57 PPG from 28 outings (13W 5D 10L).
On the road, Guingamp have gone 12W 5D 11L from 28 away games — 1.46 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Guingamp are on 1.37 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Blended
Guingamp
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Guingamp in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 21W 10D 26L in their last 57 games (1.28 PPG), while Guingamp have gone 23W 14D 20L in their last 57 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Guingamp away?
Caen's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.57 PPG; Guingamp away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Caen or Guingamp been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Guingamp in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Guingamp have taken the last 4 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Caen won 4-1 on 20 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 2W 0D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Guingamp — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Caen
0
Draws
5
Guingamp
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Guingamp?
From 8 meetings on record, Caen have won 3, Guingamp have won 5, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Guingamp last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Caen 0-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Guingamp?
Guingamp have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 32%, Guingamp 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Caen) and 46% (Guingamp).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Guingamp in 36%; Caen have failed to score in 29% of games; Guingamp in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Guingamp away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Guingamp?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Caen's recent matches and 46% of Guingamp's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Guingamp usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Caen's recent games and 46% of Guingamp's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Guingamp tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Guingamp in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Guingamp edge out Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Guingamp beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 20, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.21 xG and Guingamp 1.35 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.82 / defence 1.11 against Guingamp attack 1.20 / defence 1.13, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 33% | Draw 27% | Guingamp 40%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 49%, Guingamp 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Guingamp's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.28 PPG, Guingamp 1.46 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Guingamp win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward. Guingamp (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.