Bordeaux 3-3 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Bordeaux at 38% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bordeaux vs Paris FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Paris FC make the trip to Stade Matmut-Atlantique to face Bordeaux in Ligue 2 (matchday 30). The match kicks off on Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Bordeaux's record over their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W D D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bordeaux have gone 5W 3D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Paris FC have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 6D 1L. Last five: D D D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Paris FC have posted 5W 5D 0L from their last 10 away outings — 2.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.50 PPG for Bordeaux against 1.50 for Paris FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bordeaux have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Paris FC managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.3 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Bordeaux 2–1 Paris FC — a Bordeaux win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Bordeaux and goals — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches and an average of 3.3 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading & In-Play
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Paris FC — key trading statistics (last 66 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bordeaux 42% versus Paris FC 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bordeaux 42% | Paris FC 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bordeaux 0.94 xG and Paris FC 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bordeaux attack 0.938 / defence 0.707 | Paris FC attack 0.942 / defence 0.856. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.104. Bordeaux have a tight defence (rating 0.707), which is pulling Paris FC's projected output down. Data: built from Bordeaux's last 66 games and Paris FC's last 67.
Result probabilities: Bordeaux 38% | Draw 36% | Paris FC 26%. Fair-value odds: Bordeaux 2.66 | Draw 2.77 | Paris FC 3.82. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS Yes probability 33% | Total xG 1.67. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.67 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Paris FC's lower xG of 0.73 gives a real chance they fail to score.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Bordeaux 3 wins from 3 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 76% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Bordeaux's last 10 home games and Paris FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.3 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bordeaux 30% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 50% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bordeaux vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 30 | Venue: Stade Matmut-Atlantique • Kick-off: Saturday 30 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bordeaux 38% | Draw 36% | Paris FC 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% (Under 76%) | BTTS Yes 33% (No 67%) | xG Bordeaux 0.94 / Paris FC 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Bordeaux attack 0.938 / def 0.707 | Paris FC attack 0.942 / def 0.856 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.104 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Bordeaux xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Paris FC xG
33%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bordeaux vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Bordeaux vs Paris FC kick off?
Bordeaux vs Paris FC kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 30 March 2024 at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What was the final score in Bordeaux vs Paris FC?
Bordeaux 3 - 3 Paris FC.
Where is Bordeaux vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade Matmut-Atlantique.
What competition is Bordeaux vs Paris FC part of?
Bordeaux vs Paris FC is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 30) (France).
Who is favourite to win Bordeaux vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Bordeaux a 38% chance of winning, Paris FC a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bordeaux vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Bordeaux and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (67%).
Will Bordeaux vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (76%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Bordeaux's attack rating (0.94) and Paris FC's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.94x) against Bordeaux's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Bordeaux's last 66 games and Paris FC's last 67 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 20.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.9%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 51% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
38%
2.66
36%
2.77
26%
3.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
0 – 1
13.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Bordeaux xG
Total xG
1.67
0.73
Paris FC xG
2.66
38%
Home win
2.77
36%
Draw
3.82
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.05
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
48%
2.09
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
10%
9.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.7 | 13.8 | 5.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.9 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 8.3 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bordeaux vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bordeaux vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.4%.
How many goals are Bordeaux and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Bordeaux and 0.73 for Paris FC, a combined total of 1.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Bordeaux vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Bordeaux's recent record stands at 30W 17D 19L from 66 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with D-W-D-D-L in the last five.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 18D 22L across 66 games — 1.45 PPG, with D-D-D-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Bordeaux against 1.45 for Paris FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Bordeaux have managed 19W 8D 5L from their last 32 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Bordeaux are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Paris FC's away record stands at 12W 11D 9L across their last 32 away games, a 1.47 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bordeaux come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bordeaux are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.20 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games; Paris FC in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bordeaux
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
Bordeaux (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bordeaux
Current Season
Paris FC
Current Season
❓ Bordeaux vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Bordeaux and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Bordeaux have gone 30W 17D 19L in their last 66 games (1.62 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 26W 18D 22L in their last 66 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bordeaux at home or Paris FC away?
Bordeaux's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bordeaux at home: 2.03 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.47 PPG.
Have Bordeaux or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bordeaux have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Paris FC in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 4 H2H matches between Bordeaux and Paris FC, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 30 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bordeaux have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Bordeaux
1
Draws
0
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Bordeaux vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bordeaux and Paris FC?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Bordeaux have won 3, Paris FC have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Bordeaux and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 March 2024: Bordeaux 3-3 Paris FC.
Who has won more matches between Bordeaux and Paris FC?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bordeaux 38%, Paris FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 34% for Bordeaux and 34% for Paris FC.
On the defensive side: Bordeaux keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Paris FC in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bordeaux home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bordeaux vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bordeaux and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bordeaux and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Bordeaux's recent games and 34% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bordeaux and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Bordeaux's recent matches and 50% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bordeaux and Paris FC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Matmut-Atlantique, Regular Season - 30, as Bordeaux and Paris FC drew 3-3 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bordeaux 0.94 xG and Paris FC 0.73 xG, a combined 1.67. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Bordeaux beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Paris FC outscored their 0.73 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bordeaux attack 0.94 / defence 0.71 against Paris FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.86, drawn from 66/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bordeaux 38% | Draw 36% | Paris FC 26%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 9% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bordeaux 42%, Paris FC 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bordeaux's trading profile (66 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Paris FC's trading profile (66 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bordeaux 1.62 PPG, Paris FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Bordeaux (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Paris FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.09 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 2 fixtures — matchday 30
All Ligue 2 fixtures →
More French football predictions →