Caen 0-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Caen at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Caen vs Bordeaux fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bordeaux make the trip to Stade Michel d'Ornano to face Caen in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 6 April 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Form
Caen (all games): 5W 1D 4L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Caen at Stade Michel d'Ornano this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Michel d'Ornano. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bordeaux have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Bordeaux's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Caen against 1.60 for Bordeaux. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Caen lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Oct 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Caen goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Bordeaux goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (67 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Caen 57% versus Bordeaux 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Caen 52% | Bordeaux 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Caen 1.55 xG and Bordeaux 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Caen attack 0.986 / defence 0.745 | Bordeaux attack 0.991 / defence 1.352. League average goals — home 1.166 / away 1.172. Bordeaux bring a strong defensive rating of 1.352 — this is suppressing Caen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Caen's defence rating of 0.745 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 68 Caen games / 67 Bordeaux games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Caen 53% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 20%. Fair-value odds: Caen 1.89 | Draw 3.70 | Bordeaux 5.00. Caen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Caen as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Caen if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Caen 20% | Bordeaux 80%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Caen vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade Michel d'Ornano • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Caen 53% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 46% | xG Caen 1.55 / Bordeaux 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Caen attack 0.986 / def 0.745 | Bordeaux attack 0.991 / def 1.352 | league avg home 1.166 / away 1.172 • Poisson stance: Caen (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Caen xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Bordeaux xG
46%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Caen vs Bordeaux kick off?
Caen vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What was the final score in Caen vs Bordeaux?
Caen 0 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Caen vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Stade Michel d'Ornano.
What competition is Caen vs Bordeaux part of?
Caen vs Bordeaux is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Caen vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Caen a 53% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 20% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Caen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Caen vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Caen and Bordeaux will score (BTTS).
Will Caen vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Bordeaux?
Record (3 meetings): Caen 0W | Draws 2 | Bordeaux 1W.
What form are Caen and Bordeaux in?
Caen (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-W. Bordeaux (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Caen's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Bordeaux's defensive record (1.35x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (0.99x) against Caen's defence (0.74x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 68/67 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.3%), 2-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Caen Win
53%
1.89
27%
3.72
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Caen xG
Total xG
2.42
0.86
Bordeaux xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
21%
4.73
Win to Nil
22%
4.49
4%
23.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.8 | 12.0 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.3 | 4.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Caen vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Caen and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Caen and 0.86 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Caen vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Caen come into this having played 67 games, going 28W 17D 22L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-W.
On the other side, Bordeaux sit at 1.61 PPG from 67 outings (30W 18D 19L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.51 PPG for Caen against 1.61 for Bordeaux. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Caen's home form reads 18W 9D 6L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.91 PPG return.
Away from home, Bordeaux have taken 1.18 points per game from 33 outings (10W 9D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.61 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bordeaux's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Caen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Caen are averaging 1.37 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.28 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 67 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Caen
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Caen and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Caen have gone 28W 17D 22L in their last 67 games (1.51 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 30W 18D 19L in their last 67 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Caen at home or Bordeaux away?
Caen's home record (1.91 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Caen at home: 1.91 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Caen or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Caen have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since January 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Caen have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Caen
2
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Caen and Bordeaux?
From 4 meetings on record, Caen have won 0, Bordeaux have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Caen and Bordeaux last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when Caen 0-1 Bordeaux.
Who has won more matches between Caen and Bordeaux?
Bordeaux have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Caen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Caen 48%, Bordeaux 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Caen) and 48% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Caen keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Bordeaux in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Caen home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Caen play Bordeaux?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Caen's recent matches and 48% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Caen vs Bordeaux usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Caen's recent games and 48% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Caen and Bordeaux tend to score early?
Caen have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bordeaux in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bordeaux defy the odds to beat Caen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bordeaux beat Caen 0-1 at Stade Michel d'Ornano, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Caen 1.55 xG and Bordeaux 0.86 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Caen fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Caen attack 0.99 / defence 0.74 against Bordeaux attack 0.99 / defence 1.35, drawn from 68/67 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Caen 53% | Draw 27% | Bordeaux 20%, with Caen to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Bordeaux win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Caen 52%, Bordeaux 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Caen's trading profile (67 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Bordeaux's trading profile (67 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Caen 1.51 PPG, Bordeaux 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bordeaux win broke the near-deadlock. Caen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward. Bordeaux (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.