Annecy 4-0 Saint Etienne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Saint Etienne at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Saint Etienne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 2 encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Saint Etienne travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 25 October 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Annecy stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Annecy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Parc des Sports, Annecy have gone 2W 6D 2L this season (10 games, 1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Ligue 2 games this season, Saint Etienne have recorded 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Saint Etienne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Saint Etienne have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Saint Etienne are 0.80 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.20), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Annecy have won 1, Saint Etienne 2, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–2 with Saint Etienne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Annecy in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Saint Etienne in-play tendencies (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 43% versus Saint Etienne 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 36% | Saint Etienne 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 0.99 xG and Saint Etienne 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.889 / defence 0.990 | Saint Etienne attack 1.060 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.246. Data: 44 Annecy games / 10 Saint Etienne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 44%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.57 | Draw 3.57 | Saint Etienne 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Saint Etienne at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Saint Etienne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates are neutral: Annecy 70% | Saint Etienne 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Saint Etienne | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Oct 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 46% | xG Annecy 0.99 / Saint Etienne 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.889 / def 0.990 | Saint Etienne attack 1.060 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.195 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Saint Etienne (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.99
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Saint Etienne xG
46%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Annecy vs Saint Etienne kick off?
Annecy vs Saint Etienne kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 25 October 2025 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Annecy 4 - 0 Saint Etienne.
Where is Annecy vs Saint Etienne being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Saint Etienne part of?
Annecy vs Saint Etienne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 28% chance of winning, Saint Etienne a 44% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Saint Etienne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Annecy and Saint Etienne will score (BTTS).
Will Annecy vs Saint Etienne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
Record (4 meetings): Annecy 1W | Draws 1 | Saint Etienne 2W.
What form are Annecy and Saint Etienne in?
Annecy (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-W. Saint Etienne (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Annecy's attack rating (0.89) and Saint Etienne's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.99 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Saint Etienne's attack versus Annecy's defence, projects 1.31 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.8%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Saint Etienne Win
28%
3.55
28%
3.58
44%
2.28
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.99
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.29
1.31
Saint Etienne xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
2.28
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.19
54%
BTTS No
1.84
Clean Sheet
27%
3.70
37%
2.68
Win to Nil
8%
13.13
16%
6.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 13.2 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 6.4 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Saint Etienne expected to score?
The model projects 0.99 expected goals for Annecy and 1.31 for Saint Etienne, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Saint Etienne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Annecy come into this having played 44 games, going 17W 12D 15L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-W. The sample for Annecy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Saint Etienne sit at 1.14 PPG from 44 outings (14W 8D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Saint Etienne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Annecy on 1.43 PPG, Saint Etienne on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Annecy's home form reads 9W 7D 5L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.62 PPG return.
Away from home, Saint Etienne have taken 1.05 points per game from 21 outings (6W 4D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Annecy are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Saint Etienne are on 1.36 scored and 2.05 conceded.
Defensively: Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Saint Etienne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Annecy and Saint Etienne in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 12D 15L in their last 44 games (1.43 PPG), while Saint Etienne have gone 14W 8D 22L in their last 44 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Saint Etienne away?
Annecy's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.62 PPG; Saint Etienne away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Annecy or Saint Etienne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Saint Etienne in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 25 Oct 2025, when Annecy won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Annecy's record when hosting Saint Etienne specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Annecy
1
Draws
3
Saint Etienne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
From 6 meetings on record, Annecy have won 2, Saint Etienne have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Saint Etienne last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Saint Etienne 4-0 Annecy.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Saint Etienne?
Saint Etienne have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Saint Etienne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 43%, Saint Etienne 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Annecy) and 57% (Saint Etienne).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Saint Etienne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Annecy play Saint Etienne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Annecy's recent matches and 52% of Saint Etienne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Annecy vs Saint Etienne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Annecy's recent games and 57% of Saint Etienne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Saint Etienne tend to score early?
Annecy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Saint Etienne in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Annecy run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Saint Etienne.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Saint Etienne 4-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 11, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 0.99 xG and Saint Etienne 1.31 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Saint Etienne landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.89 / defence 0.99 against Saint Etienne attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 28% | Draw 28% | Saint Etienne 44%, with Saint Etienne to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 36%, Saint Etienne 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Saint Etienne's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.43 PPG, Saint Etienne 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Saint Etienne (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.24 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.