Annecy 3-1 Bordeaux – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bordeaux at 42% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Annecy vs Bordeaux encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bordeaux make the trip to Parc des Sports to face Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 29). The match kicks off on Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time.
Form
Annecy (all games): 2W 2D 6L across their last 10 — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
Annecy's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Bordeaux have collected 1.80 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
When travelling, Bordeaux have posted 2W 2D 6L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Bordeaux are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Bordeaux edge it 2 wins to 1, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 11 Nov 2023, ended Annecy 1–3 Bordeaux — a Bordeaux win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bordeaux — key trading statistics (last 65 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 45% versus Bordeaux 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 49% | Bordeaux 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.02 xG and Bordeaux 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.710 / defence 1.130 | Bordeaux attack 1.067 / defence 1.263. League average goals — home 1.140 / away 1.076. Annecy's attack rating of 0.710 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.02. Bordeaux's defence rating of 1.263 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Annecy's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 66 games and Bordeaux's last 65.
Result probabilities: Annecy 29% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 42%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.50 | Draw 3.41 | Bordeaux 2.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bordeaux are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Bordeaux if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 59% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Bordeaux 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Bordeaux | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 29 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 16 March 2024 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 29% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 47% (No 53%) | xG Annecy 1.02 / Bordeaux 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.710 / def 1.130 | Bordeaux attack 1.067 / def 1.263 | league avg home 1.140 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bordeaux (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Bordeaux xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Bordeaux FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Bordeaux kick off?
Annecy vs Bordeaux kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 16 March 2024 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Annecy 3 - 1 Bordeaux.
Where is Annecy vs Bordeaux being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Bordeaux part of?
Annecy vs Bordeaux is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 29) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 29% chance of winning, Bordeaux a 42% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bordeaux the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Annecy and Bordeaux will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (53%).
Will Annecy vs Bordeaux have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Annecy's attack at 0.71x the league average against Bordeaux's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.02 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bordeaux's attack (1.07x) against Annecy's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 66 games and Bordeaux's last 65 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.5%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bordeaux Win
29%
3.50
29%
3.41
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.8%
Away win
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.32
1.30
Bordeaux xG
3.50
29%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
8%
12.81
15%
6.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 13.0 | 8.5 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Bordeaux Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Bordeaux expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Annecy and 1.30 for Bordeaux, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Bordeaux?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy's recent record stands at 17W 21D 27L from 65 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-W in the last five.
Bordeaux, meanwhile, have gone 30W 17D 18L across 65 games — 1.65 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Bordeaux by 0.54 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Annecy heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Annecy have managed 11W 10D 11L from their last 32 home games — 1.34 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Bordeaux's away record stands at 10W 9D 13L across their last 32 away games, a 1.22 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Bordeaux's recent record.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Bordeaux are on 1.26 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Bordeaux in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
Annecy (Home) vs Bordeaux (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Current Season
Bordeaux
Current Season
❓ Annecy vs Bordeaux Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Bordeaux in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 17W 21D 27L in their last 65 games (1.11 PPG), while Bordeaux have gone 30W 17D 18L in their last 65 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Bordeaux away?
Annecy's home record (1.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.34 PPG; Bordeaux away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Annecy or Bordeaux been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Bordeaux in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to October 2022 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 16 March 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Bordeaux — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Annecy
0
Draws
2
Bordeaux
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Bordeaux H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Bordeaux?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 2, Bordeaux have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Bordeaux last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 March 2024: Annecy 3-1 Bordeaux.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 44% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bordeaux are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 38%, Bordeaux 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Annecy) and 47% (Bordeaux).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 38% of games; Bordeaux in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Bordeaux away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Bordeaux Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Bordeaux matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Annecy's recent matches and 47% of Bordeaux's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Bordeaux matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Annecy's recent games and 47% of Bordeaux's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Bordeaux matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Annecy's recent matches and 75% of Bordeaux's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Bordeaux.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Bordeaux 3-1 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.02 xG and Bordeaux 1.30 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Annecy beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.71 / defence 1.13 against Bordeaux attack 1.07 / defence 1.26, drawn from 66/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 29% | Draw 29% | Bordeaux 42%, with Bordeaux to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Annecy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 49%, Bordeaux 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Bordeaux's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Bordeaux arrived the stronger side — 1.65 PPG against 1.11. Form was overturned, with Annecy winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm. Bordeaux (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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