Annecy 3-0 Amiens – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Amiens at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Annecy face Amiens.

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Analysis & Preview

Amiens travel to Parc des Sports to take on Annecy in Ligue 2 (matchday 4). The game is scheduled for Friday 13 September 2024 at 20:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Annecy — last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Annecy's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Amiens stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

Amiens's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Annecy at 1.40 PPG versus Amiens's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 4 H2H matches, Annecy have won 1, Amiens 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 4 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.5 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 23 Jan 2024, ended Annecy 0–1 Amiens — a Amiens win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Annecy in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).

Amiens in-play tendencies (last 41 games, 20 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 58% versus Amiens 39%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 58% | Amiens 29%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Annecy surrender their half-time lead 42% of the time, while Amiens have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 43% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.22 xG and Amiens 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 1.056 / defence 1.340 | Amiens attack 0.927 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.237 / away 1.145. Annecy's defence rating of 1.340 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Amiens's projected output up. Data: built from Annecy's last 41 games and Amiens's last 41. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Annecy 32% | Draw 26% | Amiens 42%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 3.10 | Draw 3.85 | Amiens 2.39. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.64. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.64 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

Poisson projects 2.64 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.5 goals per game across 4 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Annecy 50% (last 10 home games) | Amiens 50% (last 10 away games).

The Poisson model's sample (Annecy 41 games, Amiens 41) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

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