Guingamp 2-2 Annecy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Annecy fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Guingamp and Annecy meet at Stade du Roudourou in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5. This fixture gets under way on Friday 20 September 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Guingamp have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Ligue 2 outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Guingamp have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade du Roudourou. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Annecy's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.40. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Annecy have played only a handful of Ligue 2 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Annecy's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Guingamp, 2 for Annecy and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 4 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Feb 2024, ended 1–4 with Annecy winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Guingamp goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.
Annecy goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 40% versus Annecy 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 50% | Annecy 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.40 xG and Annecy 1.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.288 / defence 1.237 | Annecy attack 1.156 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.254 / away 1.098. Guingamp carry an above-average attack strength of 1.288 — their λ of 1.40 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 42 Guingamp games / 42 Annecy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 24% | Annecy 42%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.94 | Draw 4.17 | Annecy 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.97. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.97 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.40 / 1.57) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Annecy as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.97 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Guingamp 30% | Annecy 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Annecy | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Friday 20 Sep 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 34% | Draw 24% | Annecy 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG Guingamp 1.40 / Annecy 1.57 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.288 / def 1.237 | Annecy attack 1.156 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.254 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Annecy (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
1.57
Annecy xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Annecy kick off?
Guingamp vs Annecy kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 20 September 2024 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Guingamp 2 - 2 Annecy.
Where is Guingamp vs Annecy being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Annecy part of?
Guingamp vs Annecy is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 34% chance of winning, Annecy a 42% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Guingamp and Annecy will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Annecy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
Record (4 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Annecy 2W.
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in?
Guingamp (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. Annecy (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Guingamp's attack rating (1.29) and Annecy's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Annecy's attack (1.16x) against Guingamp's defence (1.24x) — and the away total comes out at 1.57.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
34%
2.94
24%
4.11
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
0 – 1
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Guingamp xG
Total xG
2.97
1.57
Annecy xG
2.94
34%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.48
Clean Sheet
21%
4.81
25%
4.05
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
10%
9.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.1 | 6.3 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.3 | 8.9 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 7.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Annecy expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Guingamp and 1.57 for Annecy, a combined total of 2.97.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Annecy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 12D 14L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-L-W. It's still early in the season for Guingamp, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Annecy sit at 1.26 PPG from 42 outings (14W 11D 17L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Annecy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Guingamp against 1.26 for Annecy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 6W 7D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Annecy have taken 1.38 points per game from 21 outings (8W 5D 8L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Annecy are on 1.36 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 42 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Early Season
Annecy
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Annecy in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 16W 12D 14L in their last 42 games (1.43 PPG), while Annecy have gone 14W 11D 17L in their last 42 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Annecy away?
Annecy's away record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.19 PPG; Annecy away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Annecy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Annecy in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Annecy won 0-4 on 8 Oct 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Annecy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Guingamp
2
Draws
4
Annecy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Annecy?
From 8 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 2, Annecy have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Annecy last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Annecy 1-0 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Annecy?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Annecy see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 38%, Annecy 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 57% (Annecy). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Annecy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Annecy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Guingamp's recent matches and 57% of Annecy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Annecy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Guingamp's matches and 57% of Annecy's.
Do Guingamp and Annecy tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Annecy in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Guingamp and Annecy share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 5, as Guingamp and Annecy drew 2-2 in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.40 xG and Annecy 1.57 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.29 / defence 1.24 against Annecy attack 1.16 / defence 0.87, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 34% | Draw 24% | Annecy 42%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 50%, Annecy 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Annecy's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.43 PPG, Annecy 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Guingamp (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Annecy (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.