Annecy 2-0 Ajaccio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Annecy at 40%, yet in-form Ajaccio provide a compelling counter-argument — this Annecy vs Ajaccio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Sports plays host to Annecy versus Ajaccio in Ligue 2 (matchday 15). Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Current Form
Annecy's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Annecy's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ajaccio (all games): 5W 3D 2L across their last 10 — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Ajaccio's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 2D 6L (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On a straight form reading, Ajaccio are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading & In-Play
Annecy — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 53%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Annecy 46% versus Ajaccio 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Annecy 50% | Ajaccio 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Annecy 1.27 xG and Ajaccio 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Annecy attack 0.976 / defence 1.200 | Ajaccio attack 0.784 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.310 / away 1.178. Ajaccio's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.11. Data: built from Annecy's last 52 games and Ajaccio's last 14.
Result probabilities: Annecy 40% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 32%. Fair-value odds: Annecy 2.49 | Draw 3.61 | Ajaccio 3.11. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 52% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Annecy at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ajaccio (1.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Annecy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 57% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Annecy 60% (last 10 home games) | Ajaccio 10% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Annecy vs Ajaccio | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 15 | Venue: Parc des Sports • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Annecy 40% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 48% (No 52%) | xG Annecy 1.27 / Ajaccio 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Annecy attack 0.976 / def 1.200 | Ajaccio attack 0.784 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.310 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Annecy (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Annecy xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Ajaccio xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio FAQs
What time does Annecy vs Ajaccio kick off?
Annecy vs Ajaccio kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Parc des Sports.
What was the final score in Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Annecy 2 - 0 Ajaccio.
Where is Annecy vs Ajaccio being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Sports.
What competition is Annecy vs Ajaccio part of?
Annecy vs Ajaccio is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 15) (France).
Who is favourite to win Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our statistical model gives Annecy a 40% chance of winning, Ajaccio a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Annecy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Annecy and Ajaccio will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (52%).
Will Annecy vs Ajaccio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Annecy's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Ajaccio's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Ajaccio's attack (0.78x) against Annecy's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from Annecy's last 52 games and Ajaccio's last 14 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Annecy Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.61
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Annecy xG
Total xG
2.38
1.11
Ajaccio xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
33%
3.03
28%
3.57
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
9%
11.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 10.2 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 13.0 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Annecy and Ajaccio expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Annecy and 1.11 for Ajaccio, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Annecy vs Ajaccio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Annecy come into this having played 52 games, going 14W 18D 20L for 1.15 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-L-L.
On the other side, Ajaccio sit at 0.94 PPG from 52 outings (13W 10D 29L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.15 PPG for Annecy against 0.94 for Ajaccio. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Annecy's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Ajaccio have taken 0.73 points per game from their last 26 away games (5W 4D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Annecy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Annecy are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Ajaccio are on 0.73 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Annecy
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
Annecy (Home) vs Ajaccio (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Annecy
Blended
Ajaccio
Blended
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio Form FAQs
What form are Annecy and Ajaccio in coming into this match?
Annecy have gone 14W 18D 20L in their last 52 games (1.15 PPG), while Ajaccio have gone 13W 10D 29L in their last 52 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Annecy at home or Ajaccio away?
Annecy's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Annecy at home: 1.46 PPG; Ajaccio away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Annecy or Ajaccio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Annecy have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Ajaccio in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to November 2023 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Annecy have won the most recent 4 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Annecy have gone 2W 0D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Ajaccio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Annecy
0
Draws
0
Ajaccio
Recent Meetings
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Annecy and Ajaccio?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Annecy have won 4, Ajaccio have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Annecy and Ajaccio last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 25 April 2025: Annecy 2-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Annecy and Ajaccio?
Annecy have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Annecy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 43% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Ajaccio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Annecy 42%, Ajaccio 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Annecy) and 65% (Ajaccio).
On the defensive side: Annecy keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Annecy have failed to score in 31% of games; Ajaccio in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Annecy home games / Ajaccio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Annecy vs Ajaccio Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Annecy and Ajaccio matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Annecy's recent matches and 38% of Ajaccio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Annecy and Ajaccio matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Annecy's recent games and 65% of Ajaccio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Annecy and Ajaccio matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Annecy's recent matches and 69% of Ajaccio's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Annecy cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ajaccio.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Annecy beat Ajaccio 2-0 at Parc des Sports, Regular Season - 15, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Annecy 1.27 xG and Ajaccio 1.11 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ajaccio landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Annecy attack 0.98 / defence 1.20 against Ajaccio attack 0.78 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Annecy 40% | Draw 28% | Ajaccio 32%, with Annecy to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Annecy 50%, Ajaccio 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Annecy's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ajaccio's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Annecy 1.15 PPG, Ajaccio 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Annecy win broke the near-deadlock. Annecy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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