Ajaccio 1-0 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Ajaccio at 50% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade François Coty plays host to Ajaccio versus Estac Troyes in Ligue 2 (matchday 14). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Ajaccio have collected 1.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: W D W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Ajaccio's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 5D 1L (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Estac Troyes (all games): 1W 5D 4L across their last 10 — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Estac Troyes's form when playing away from home: 0W 6D 4L across their last 10 road games (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Ajaccio's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Estac Troyes's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 1 wins for Ajaccio, 0 for Estac Troyes and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Feb 2023, ended Ajaccio 2–1 Estac Troyes — a Ajaccio win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Ajaccio — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 52% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 28% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Estac Troyes — key trading statistics (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 64%; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ajaccio 33% versus Estac Troyes 71%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ajaccio 51% | Estac Troyes 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ajaccio 1.43 xG and Estac Troyes 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ajaccio attack 0.978 / defence 0.894 | Estac Troyes attack 0.877 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.119. Data: built from Ajaccio's last 13 games and Estac Troyes's last 13.
Result probabilities: Ajaccio 50% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 23%. Fair-value odds: Ajaccio 2.01 | Draw 3.63 | Estac Troyes 4.39. Ajaccio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Ajaccio as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ajaccio if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 59% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Ajaccio 30% (last 10 home games) | Estac Troyes 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 14 | Venue: Stade François Coty • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ajaccio 50% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% (Under 59%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Ajaccio 1.43 / Estac Troyes 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Ajaccio attack 0.978 / def 0.894 | Estac Troyes attack 0.877 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Ajaccio (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Ajaccio xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Estac Troyes xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes FAQs
What time does Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 18:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Stade François Coty.
What was the final score in Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Ajaccio 1 - 0 Estac Troyes.
Where is Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade François Coty.
What competition is Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes part of?
Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 14) (France).
Who is favourite to win Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Ajaccio a 50% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Ajaccio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ajaccio and Estac Troyes will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (59%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Ajaccio's attack at 0.98x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Estac Troyes's attack (0.88x) against Ajaccio's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from Ajaccio's last 13 games and Estac Troyes's last 13 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ajaccio Win
50%
2.01
28%
3.63
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Ajaccio xG
Total xG
2.31
0.88
Estac Troyes xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
42%
2.41
24%
4.19
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
5%
18.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 8.7 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 12.5 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 8.9 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Ajaccio and 0.88 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Ajaccio come into this having played 51 games, going 12W 10D 29L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-L-W.
On the other side, Estac Troyes sit at 0.73 PPG from 51 outings (6W 19D 26L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.90 PPG for Ajaccio against 0.73 for Estac Troyes. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Ajaccio's home form reads 7W 6D 12L across their last 25 home games, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, Estac Troyes have taken 0.60 points per game from their last 25 away games (3W 6D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Ajaccio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Ajaccio are averaging 0.73 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.20 scored and 1.92 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Estac Troyes in 71%.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ajaccio
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
Ajaccio (Home) vs Estac Troyes (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Ajaccio
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes Form FAQs
What form are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Ajaccio have gone 12W 10D 29L in their last 51 games (0.90 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 6W 19D 26L in their last 51 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ajaccio at home or Estac Troyes away?
Ajaccio's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ajaccio at home: 1.08 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 6 H2H matches between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes, the earliest from October 2022. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent in our data was on 11 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ajaccio have gone 3W 0D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Estac Troyes — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Ajaccio
2
Draws
1
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Ajaccio have won 3, Estac Troyes have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Ajaccio and Estac Troyes last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 April 2025: Estac Troyes 0-0 Ajaccio.
Who has won more matches between Ajaccio and Estac Troyes?
Ajaccio have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ajaccio see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Estac Troyes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ajaccio 28%, Estac Troyes 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Ajaccio) and 76% (Estac Troyes). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 60% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Ajaccio keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ajaccio have failed to score in 56% of games; Estac Troyes in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ajaccio home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Ajaccio vs Estac Troyes Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Ajaccio and Estac Troyes matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 28% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 72% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Ajaccio and Estac Troyes matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 36% of Ajaccio's matches and 76% of Estac Troyes's.
Do Ajaccio and Estac Troyes matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 52% of Ajaccio's recent matches and 76% of Estac Troyes's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ajaccio edge out Estac Troyes 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ajaccio beat Estac Troyes 1-0 at Stade François Coty, Regular Season - 14, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ajaccio 1.43 xG and Estac Troyes 0.88 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Estac Troyes landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ajaccio attack 0.98 / defence 0.89 against Estac Troyes attack 0.88 / defence 1.13, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ajaccio 50% | Draw 28% | Estac Troyes 23%, with Ajaccio to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ajaccio 51%, Estac Troyes 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ajaccio's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Ajaccio 0.90 PPG, Estac Troyes 0.73 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ajaccio win broke the near-deadlock. Ajaccio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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