Amiens 1-1 Martigues – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 68% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Martigues encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 2 clash, Regular Season - 13 as Amiens welcome Martigues to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Kick-off is set for Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Amiens stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's home record at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 2 appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Martigues — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this season — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Martigues, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 2 this season, Martigues have posted 2W 1D 2L from 5 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Amiens are in the better shape of the two on current Ligue 2 data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.50). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
In-Play Data
Amiens trading profile (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Martigues trading profile (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Amiens 42% | Martigues 25%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 58% | Martigues 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 2.02 xG and Martigues 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 1.024 / defence 0.709 | Martigues attack 0.917 / defence 1.383. League average goals — home 1.430 / away 1.094. Martigues bring a strong defensive rating of 1.383 — this is suppressing Amiens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Amiens's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 50 Amiens games / 12 Martigues games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 68% | Draw 20% | Martigues 12%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 1.47 | Draw 5.00 | Martigues 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Amiens (68%) — a 56pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Amiens as the most likely outcome at 68% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.74 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 30% | Martigues 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Martigues | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 68% | Draw 20% | Martigues 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 44% | xG Amiens 2.02 / Martigues 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 1.024 / def 0.709 | Martigues attack 0.917 / def 1.383 | league avg home 1.430 / away 1.094 • Poisson stance: Amiens (68%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
2.02
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Martigues xG
44%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Martigues kick off?
Amiens vs Martigues kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Martigues?
Amiens 1 - 1 Martigues.
Where is Amiens vs Martigues being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Martigues part of?
Amiens vs Martigues is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Martigues?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 68% chance of winning, Martigues a 12% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Martigues?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Amiens and Martigues will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Martigues have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Martigues?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Amiens and Martigues in?
Amiens (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Martigues (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Amiens vs Martigues?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Amiens's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Martigues's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.02. The same calculation in reverse, Martigues's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
68%
1.47
20%
5.06
12%
8.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.02
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.74
0.71
Martigues xG
1.47
68%
Home win
5.06
20%
Draw
8.29
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
13%
7.58
Win to Nil
33%
2.99
2%
62.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.3 | 9.5 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Martigues?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Martigues expected to score?
The model projects 2.02 expected goals for Amiens and 0.71 for Martigues, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Martigues?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 68%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Amiens come into this having played 12 games, going 6W 1D 5L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Martigues sit at 0.67 PPG from 12 outings (2W 2D 8L), a run that reads D-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Martigues is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Amiens carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.91 PPG clear of Martigues — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Amiens's home form reads 4W 1D 0L across 5 games on their own ground, a 2.60 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.58 PPG overall — Amiens are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Martigues have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (2W 1D 2L). That's actually stronger than their 0.67 PPG overall record — Martigues travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Amiens are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Martigues are on 0.58 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Martigues in 25%.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Martigues
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Martigues in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 6W 1D 5L in their last 12 games (1.58 PPG), while Martigues have gone 2W 2D 8L in their last 12 (0.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Martigues away?
Amiens's home record (2.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 2.60 PPG; Martigues away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Amiens or Martigues been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Martigues in 8%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Amiens and Martigues runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Amiens
1
Draws
1
Martigues
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Martigues?
From 2 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Martigues have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Martigues last play each other?
They last met on 24 January 2025, when Martigues 3-0 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Martigues?
Martigues have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Martigues are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 40%, Martigues 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Amiens) and 60% (Martigues).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 60% of their matches; Martigues in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Martigues away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Martigues?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Amiens's recent matches and 40% of Martigues's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Martigues usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Amiens's recent games and 60% of Martigues's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Martigues tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Martigues in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Amiens and Martigues share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 13, as Amiens and Martigues drew 1-1 in the Ligue 2. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 2.02 xG and Martigues 0.71 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 1.02 / defence 0.71 against Martigues attack 0.92 / defence 1.38, drawn from 50/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 68% | Draw 20% | Martigues 12%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 68%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 58%, Martigues 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 33%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Martigues's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Amiens arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 0.67. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Martigues (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.