Amiens 1-4 Grenoble – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Amiens face Grenoble.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Grenoble make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2 (matchday 23). The match kicks off on Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time.
Form
Amiens (all games): 3W 1D 6L across their last 10 — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Amiens at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Amiens are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Grenoble's record over their last 10 games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Grenoble's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H History
Neither side has dominated the 7 H2H matches in our data: 4 wins for Amiens, 2 for Grenoble and 1 draw — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 2.9 per game across the 7 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 7 Dec 2024, ended Amiens 2–0 Grenoble — a Amiens win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 2.9 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Amiens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 52% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Grenoble goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 66% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 40% versus Grenoble 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 38% | Grenoble 47%). Note also that Grenoble surrender HT leads in 36% of cases while Amiens recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.35 xG and Grenoble 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.901 / defence 0.971 | Grenoble attack 0.814 / defence 1.177. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.041. Data: built from Amiens's last 60 games and Grenoble's last 60.
Result probabilities: Amiens 49% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 23%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.04 | Draw 3.57 | Grenoble 4.37. Amiens hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 58% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Amiens at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 2.9 goals per game across 7 H2H matches points the other way.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Amiens 40% (last 10 home games) | Grenoble 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Grenoble | Competition: Ligue 2, matchday 23 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 14 February 2025 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 49% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 42% (No 58%) | xG Amiens 1.35 / Grenoble 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.901 / def 0.971 | Grenoble attack 0.814 / def 1.177 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.041 • Poisson stance: Amiens (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Grenoble xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Amiens vs Grenoble FAQs
What time does Amiens vs Grenoble kick off?
Amiens vs Grenoble kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Friday 14 February 2025 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Grenoble?
Amiens 1 - 4 Grenoble.
Where is Amiens vs Grenoble being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Grenoble part of?
Amiens vs Grenoble is a Ligue 2 fixture (matchday 23) (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Grenoble?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 49% chance of winning, Grenoble a 23% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Grenoble?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Amiens and Grenoble will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (58%).
Will Amiens vs Grenoble have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Amiens's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Grenoble's defensive record (1.18x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. Flip it around — Grenoble's attack (0.81x) against Amiens's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from Amiens's last 60 games and Grenoble's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
49%
2.04
28%
3.57
23%
4.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.17
0.82
Grenoble xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.57
28%
Draw
4.37
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
26%
3.85
Win to Nil
22%
4.64
6%
16.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.4 | 9.4 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 12.7 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.5 | 3.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Amiens vs Grenoble Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Grenoble?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Amiens and Grenoble expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Amiens and 0.82 for Grenoble, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Grenoble?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Amiens come into this having played 60 games, going 21W 19D 20L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Grenoble sit at 1.37 PPG from 60 outings (22W 16D 22L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Amiens against 1.37 for Grenoble. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Amiens's home form reads 11W 12D 6L across their last 29 home games, a 1.55 PPG return.
Away from home, Grenoble have taken 1.03 points per game from their last 29 away games (8W 6D 15L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Grenoble are on 1.13 scored and 1.17 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
Amiens (Home) vs Grenoble (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Amiens
Blended
Grenoble
Blended
❓ Amiens vs Grenoble Form FAQs
What form are Amiens and Grenoble in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 21W 19D 20L in their last 60 games (1.37 PPG), while Grenoble have gone 22W 16D 22L in their last 60 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Grenoble away?
Amiens's home record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.55 PPG; Grenoble away: 1.03 PPG.
Have Amiens or Grenoble been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Grenoble in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Amiens and Grenoble, the earliest from December 2021. All of them came in Ligue 2. The most recent was on 30 January 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear recent trend here: Grenoble have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Amiens won Amiens 4-1 Grenoble on 11 Dec 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 2W 0D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Grenoble — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
1
Draws
5
Grenoble
Recent Meetings
❓ Amiens vs Grenoble H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Grenoble?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Amiens have won 4, Grenoble have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Amiens and Grenoble last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 January 2026: Grenoble 2-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Grenoble?
Grenoble have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Grenoble are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 45%, Grenoble 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 34% (Amiens) and 52% (Grenoble).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 31% of games; Grenoble in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Grenoble away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Amiens vs Grenoble Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Amiens and Grenoble matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Amiens's recent matches and 45% of Grenoble's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Amiens and Grenoble matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 34% of Amiens's recent games and 52% of Grenoble's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Grenoble matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Amiens's recent matches and 66% of Grenoble's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Grenoble run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Grenoble beat Amiens 1-4 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.35 xG and Grenoble 0.82 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Grenoble outscored their 0.82 projection by 3.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.90 / defence 0.97 against Grenoble attack 0.81 / defence 1.18, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 49% | Draw 28% | Grenoble 23%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Grenoble win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Grenoble 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Grenoble's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.37 PPG, Grenoble 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grenoble win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 0.86 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Grenoble (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.97 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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