Guingamp 0-3 Metz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Guingamp at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Guingamp vs Metz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade du Roudourou plays host to Guingamp versus Metz in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 15 February 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Guingamp's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Guingamp, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Guingamp have posted 5W 2D 3L at Stade du Roudourou — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Metz (all games): 5W 5D 0L across 10 Ligue 2 outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Metz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Metz's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Ligue 2 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.90 vs 2.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Guingamp 1W, Metz 1W, 1D.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 3 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Oct 2024, ended 0–1 with Metz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Guingamp half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 31% of games.
Metz half-time and goal-timing data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Guingamp 40% versus Metz 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Guingamp 52% | Metz 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Guingamp 1.24 xG and Metz 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Guingamp attack 1.176 / defence 0.831 | Metz attack 0.741 / defence 0.838. League average goals — home 1.256 / away 1.074. Data: 60 Guingamp games / 22 Metz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Metz 20%. Fair-value odds: Guingamp 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Metz 5.00. Guingamp hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Metz's lower xG of 0.66 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Guingamp as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Guingamp if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.90 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Guingamp 40% | Metz 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Guingamp vs Metz | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stade du Roudourou • Kick-off: Saturday 15 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Metz 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 34% | xG Guingamp 1.24 / Metz 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Guingamp attack 1.176 / def 0.831 | Metz attack 0.741 / def 0.838 | league avg home 1.256 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Guingamp (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Guingamp xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Metz xG
34%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Guingamp vs Metz kick off?
Guingamp vs Metz kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 15 February 2025 at Stade du Roudourou.
What was the final score in Guingamp vs Metz?
Guingamp 0 - 3 Metz.
Where is Guingamp vs Metz being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Roudourou.
What competition is Guingamp vs Metz part of?
Guingamp vs Metz is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Guingamp vs Metz?
Our statistical model gives Guingamp a 50% chance of winning, Metz a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Guingamp the favourite.
Will both teams score in Guingamp vs Metz?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Guingamp and Metz will score (BTTS).
Will Guingamp vs Metz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Metz?
Record (3 meetings): Guingamp 1W | Draws 1 | Metz 1W.
What form are Guingamp and Metz in?
Guingamp (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Metz (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Guingamp's attack at 1.18x the league average against Metz's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.24 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Metz's attack (0.74x) against Guingamp's defence (0.83x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 60/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.6%), 1-1 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Guingamp Win
50%
1.99
30%
3.34
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Guingamp xG
Total xG
1.90
0.66
Metz xG
1.99
50%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.91
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
52%
1.94
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
26%
3.87
6%
17.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 9.9 | 3.3 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 18.5 | 12.3 | 4.1 | 0.9 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 11.5 | 7.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Guingamp vs Metz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.9%.
How many goals are Guingamp and Metz expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Guingamp and 0.66 for Metz, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Guingamp vs Metz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Guingamp come into this having played 58 games, going 24W 14D 20L for 1.48 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-W. The sample for Guingamp is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Metz sit at 1.22 PPG from 58 outings (19W 14D 25L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five. The sample for Metz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.48 PPG for Guingamp against 1.22 for Metz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Guingamp's home form reads 10W 9D 9L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Metz have taken 1.07 points per game from 28 outings (8W 6D 14L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Guingamp are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Metz are on 1.24 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Defensively: Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 58 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Guingamp
Blended
Metz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Guingamp and Metz in coming into this match?
Guingamp have gone 24W 14D 20L in their last 58 games (1.48 PPG), while Metz have gone 19W 14D 25L in their last 58 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Guingamp at home or Metz away?
Guingamp's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Guingamp at home: 1.39 PPG; Metz away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Guingamp or Metz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Guingamp have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Metz in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Metz go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Guingamp won 3-6 on 12 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Guingamp have gone 0W 1D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Metz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Guingamp
1
Draws
3
Metz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Guingamp and Metz?
From 5 meetings on record, Guingamp have won 1, Metz have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Guingamp and Metz last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when Metz 2-1 Guingamp.
Who has won more matches between Guingamp and Metz?
Metz have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Guingamp are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Metz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Guingamp 39%, Metz 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Guingamp) and 46% (Metz).
On the defensive side: Guingamp keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Guingamp have failed to score in 32% of games; Metz in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Guingamp home games / Metz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Guingamp play Metz?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Guingamp's recent matches and 54% of Metz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Guingamp vs Metz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Guingamp's recent games and 46% of Metz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Guingamp and Metz tend to score early?
Guingamp have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Metz in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Metz run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Guingamp.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Metz beat Guingamp 0-3 at Stade du Roudourou, Regular Season - 23, in the Ligue 2. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Guingamp 1.24 xG and Metz 0.66 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Guingamp fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Metz outscored their 0.66 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Guingamp attack 1.18 / defence 0.83 against Metz attack 0.74 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Guingamp 50% | Draw 30% | Metz 20%, with Guingamp to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Metz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Guingamp 52%, Metz 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Guingamp's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Metz's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Guingamp 1.48 PPG, Metz 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metz win broke the near-deadlock. Guingamp (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.54 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Metz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.