Amiens 0-3 Estac Troyes – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Amiens at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Amiens vs Estac Troyes fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Amiens host Estac Troyes at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 3 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Amiens — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Ligue 2 outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Amiens have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Estac Troyes stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 2 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Estac Troyes, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Estac Troyes away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Amiens at 1.40 PPG versus Estac Troyes's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Amiens have won 0, Estac Troyes 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Amiens in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Estac Troyes in-play tendencies (54 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 43% versus Estac Troyes 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 37% | Estac Troyes 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.20 xG and Estac Troyes 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.949 / defence 1.028 | Estac Troyes attack 0.928 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.407 / away 0.975. Data: 54 Amiens games / 54 Estac Troyes games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 42% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 29%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.38 | Draw 3.45 | Estac Troyes 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.12 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Amiens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Amiens 40% | Estac Troyes 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Estac Troyes | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 3 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 42% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG Amiens 1.20 / Estac Troyes 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.949 / def 1.028 | Estac Troyes attack 0.928 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.407 / away 0.975 • Poisson stance: Amiens (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Estac Troyes xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Estac Troyes kick off?
Amiens vs Estac Troyes kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 3 January 2025 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Amiens 0 - 3 Estac Troyes.
Where is Amiens vs Estac Troyes being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Estac Troyes part of?
Amiens vs Estac Troyes is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 42% chance of winning, Estac Troyes a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Amiens and Estac Troyes will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Estac Troyes have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
Record (2 meetings): Amiens 0W | Draws 1 | Estac Troyes 1W.
What form are Amiens and Estac Troyes in?
Amiens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Estac Troyes (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.95x the league average against Estac Troyes's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.20 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Estac Troyes's attack versus Amiens's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.7%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
42%
2.38
29%
3.40
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.12
0.93
Estac Troyes xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
17%
6.03
9%
11.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.1 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.3 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Amiens and Estac Troyes expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Amiens and 0.93 for Estac Troyes, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Estac Troyes?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.41 PPG on a 19W 19D 16L record — L-D-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Estac Troyes's form line: 14W 18D 22L from 54 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-W. The sample for Estac Troyes is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Amiens on 1.41 PPG, Estac Troyes on 1.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (10W 12D 5L).
On the road, Estac Troyes have gone 4W 11D 12L from 27 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Amiens are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Estac Troyes are on 1.07 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Estac Troyes
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Estac Troyes in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 19D 16L in their last 54 games (1.41 PPG), while Estac Troyes have gone 14W 18D 22L in their last 54 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Estac Troyes away?
Amiens's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.56 PPG; Estac Troyes away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Amiens or Estac Troyes been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Estac Troyes in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 2 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Estac Troyes go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 3 Jan 2025, when Estac Troyes won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Amiens's record when hosting Estac Troyes specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Amiens
1
Draws
5
Estac Troyes
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
From 6 meetings on record, Amiens have won 0, Estac Troyes have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Estac Troyes last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2026, when Amiens 0-2 Estac Troyes.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Estac Troyes?
Estac Troyes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Amiens see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Estac Troyes see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 26% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 48%, Estac Troyes 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Amiens) and 41% (Estac Troyes).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Estac Troyes in 33%; Amiens have failed to score in 30% of games; Estac Troyes in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Estac Troyes away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Estac Troyes?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Amiens's recent matches and 41% of Estac Troyes's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Estac Troyes usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Amiens's recent games and 41% of Estac Troyes's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Estac Troyes run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Amiens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Estac Troyes beat Amiens 0-3 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 17, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.20 xG and Estac Troyes 0.93 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Amiens fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Estac Troyes outscored their 0.93 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Estac Troyes attack 0.93 / defence 0.90, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 42% | Draw 29% | Estac Troyes 29%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Estac Troyes win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 37%, Estac Troyes 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Estac Troyes's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.41 PPG, Estac Troyes 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Estac Troyes win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Estac Troyes (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.