Amiens 1-0 Bastia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Amiens at 37% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Amiens vs Bastia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bastia make the trip to Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne to face Amiens in Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Amiens (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Ligue 2 fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Amiens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Amiens's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Amiens are significantly better at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne than their overall form suggests.
Bastia's overall Ligue 2 record this term: 2W 6D 2L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bastia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Bastia have gone 2W 5D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Amiens, 1.20 for Bastia — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 7 meetings: Amiens 3W, Bastia 1W, 3D.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 1.9 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 0–1 with Bastia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Amiens — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Bastia — key trading statistics (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Amiens 41% versus Bastia 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Amiens 38% | Bastia 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Amiens 1.22 xG and Bastia 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Amiens attack 0.885 / defence 1.188 | Bastia attack 0.936 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.305 / away 1.028. Data: 56 Amiens games / 56 Bastia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 29% | Bastia 34%. Fair-value odds: Amiens 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Bastia 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.36. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.36 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Amiens are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Amiens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.36 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.9 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Amiens 40% | Bastia 60%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Amiens vs Bastia | Competition: Ligue 2, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Amiens 37% | Draw 29% | Bastia 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 49% | xG Amiens 1.22 / Bastia 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Amiens attack 0.885 / def 1.188 | Bastia attack 0.936 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.305 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Amiens (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
Amiens xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Bastia xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Amiens vs Bastia kick off?
Amiens vs Bastia kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What was the final score in Amiens vs Bastia?
Amiens 1 - 0 Bastia.
Where is Amiens vs Bastia being played?
The match is being played at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne.
What competition is Amiens vs Bastia part of?
Amiens vs Bastia is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Ligue 2 (France).
Who is favourite to win Amiens vs Bastia?
Our statistical model gives Amiens a 37% chance of winning, Bastia a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Amiens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Amiens vs Bastia?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Amiens and Bastia will score (BTTS).
Will Amiens vs Bastia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bastia?
Record (7 meetings): Amiens 3W | Draws 3 | Bastia 1W.
What form are Amiens and Bastia in?
Amiens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Bastia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Amiens's attack at 0.89x the league average against Bastia's defence at 1.06x — combine the two and it projects 1.22 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Bastia's attack (0.94x) against Amiens's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.1%), 1-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Amiens Win
37%
2.68
29%
3.44
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
Amiens xG
Total xG
2.36
1.14
Bastia xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.44
29%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
30%
3.39
Win to Nil
12%
8.41
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.1 | 7.5 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Amiens vs Bastia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Amiens and Bastia expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for Amiens and 1.14 for Bastia, a combined total of 2.36.
How confident is the prediction model for Amiens vs Bastia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Amiens have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 19W 19D 18L record — L-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Amiens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bastia's form line: 19W 19D 18L from 56 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Bastia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Amiens against 1.36 for Bastia. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Amiens have posted 1.50 PPG from 28 outings (10W 12D 6L).
On the road, Bastia have gone 7W 9D 12L from 28 away games — 1.07 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Amiens come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Amiens are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Bastia are on 1.18 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Defensively: Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Bastia in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Ligue 2
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Amiens
Blended
Bastia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Amiens and Bastia in coming into this match?
Amiens have gone 19W 19D 18L in their last 56 games (1.36 PPG), while Bastia have gone 19W 19D 18L in their last 56 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Amiens at home or Bastia away?
Amiens's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Amiens at home: 1.50 PPG; Bastia away: 1.07 PPG.
Have Amiens or Bastia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Amiens have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Bastia in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 2. They last met on 3 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Amiens have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Bastia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Amiens
5
Draws
1
Bastia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Amiens and Bastia?
From 10 meetings on record, Amiens have won 4, Bastia have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Amiens and Bastia last play each other?
They last met on 3 April 2026, when Bastia 1-1 Amiens.
Who has won more matches between Amiens and Bastia?
Amiens have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Amiens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Bastia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Amiens 46%, Bastia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Amiens) and 39% (Bastia).
On the defensive side: Amiens keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Amiens have failed to score in 32% of games; Bastia in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Amiens home games / Bastia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Amiens play Bastia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Amiens's recent matches and 50% of Bastia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Amiens vs Bastia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Amiens's recent games and 39% of Bastia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Amiens and Bastia tend to score early?
Amiens have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Bastia in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Amiens edge out Bastia 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Amiens beat Bastia 1-0 at Stade Crédit Agricole de la Licorne, Regular Season - 19, in the Ligue 2. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Amiens 1.22 xG and Bastia 1.14 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bastia landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Amiens attack 0.89 / defence 1.19 against Bastia attack 0.94 / defence 1.06, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Amiens 37% | Draw 29% | Bastia 34%, with Amiens to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Amiens 38%, Bastia 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Amiens's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Bastia's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Amiens 1.36 PPG, Bastia 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Amiens win broke the near-deadlock. Amiens (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Bastia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.07 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.