Toulouse vs Monaco – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Toulouse vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Toulouse host Monaco at Stadium de Toulouse in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 February 2027 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Toulouse — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Toulouse haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Toulouse have posted 4W 3D 3L at Stadium de Toulouse — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Monaco haven't played a Ligue 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Monaco have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Toulouse at 1.30 PPG versus Monaco's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Toulouse, 4 for Monaco and 2 shared spoils from 8 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (33 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Toulouse 48% versus Monaco 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Toulouse 54% | Monaco 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Toulouse 1.65 xG and Monaco 1.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Toulouse attack 0.954 / defence 1.020 | Monaco attack 1.143 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.329. Data: 33 Toulouse games / 34 Monaco games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Monaco 35%. Fair-value odds: Toulouse 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Monaco 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.65 / 1.55) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.20 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 62% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Toulouse 40% | Monaco 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Toulouse vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadium de Toulouse • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Feb 2027, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Toulouse 39% | Draw 26% | Monaco 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 65% | xG Toulouse 1.65 / Monaco 1.55 • Poisson strength factors: Toulouse attack 0.954 / def 1.020 | Monaco attack 1.143 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.329 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Toulouse xG
Expected Goals
1.55
Monaco xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
40%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Toulouse vs Monaco kick off?
Toulouse vs Monaco is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 13 February 2027 at Stadium de Toulouse.
Where is Toulouse vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stadium de Toulouse.
What competition is Toulouse vs Monaco part of?
Toulouse vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Toulouse a 39% chance of winning, Monaco a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Toulouse and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Toulouse vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
Record (8 meetings): Toulouse 2W | Draws 2 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Toulouse's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Monaco's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.65. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Toulouse's defence, projects 1.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
39%
2.54
26%
3.89
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Toulouse xG
Total xG
3.20
1.55
Monaco xG
2.54
39%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
40%
Over 3.5
2.50
60%
Under 3.5
1.67
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.54
35%
BTTS No
2.84
Clean Sheet
21%
4.71
19%
5.21
Win to Nil
8%
11.98
7%
14.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.1 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 10.4 | 8.1 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.7 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Toulouse and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Toulouse and 1.55 for Monaco, a combined total of 3.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Toulouse vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 33 outings, Toulouse have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 12W 8D 13L record — L-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. Toulouse haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Monaco's form line: 15W 6D 12L from 33 games, 1.55 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-L. Monaco haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Toulouse on 1.33 PPG, Monaco on 1.55. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Toulouse have posted 1.41 PPG from 17 outings (6W 6D 5L).
On the road, Monaco have gone 6W 4D 7L from 17 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Toulouse are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.73 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Monaco in 64%.
Last 33 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Toulouse
Pre-Season
Monaco
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Toulouse and Monaco in coming into this match?
Toulouse have gone 12W 8D 13L in their last 33 games (1.33 PPG), while Monaco have gone 15W 6D 12L in their last 33 (1.55 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Toulouse at home or Monaco away?
Toulouse's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Toulouse at home: 1.41 PPG; Monaco away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 25 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Toulouse's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Toulouse
2
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Toulouse and Monaco?
From 8 meetings on record, Toulouse have won 2, Monaco have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Toulouse and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2026, when Toulouse 2-2 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Toulouse and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Toulouse 41%, Monaco 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Toulouse) and 65% (Monaco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 47% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Toulouse keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Toulouse have failed to score in 35% of games; Monaco in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Toulouse home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Toulouse play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 41% of Toulouse's games and 71% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Toulouse vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Toulouse's matches and 65% of Monaco's.
Do Toulouse and Monaco tend to score early?
Toulouse have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Monaco in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.