Rennes 4-5 Stade Brestois 29 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rennes at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Roazhon Park plays host to Rennes versus Stade Brestois 29 in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:05 UK time.
Form
Rennes (all games): 4W 2D 4L across their last 10 — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Rennes have gone 5W 1D 4L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Stade Brestois 29's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Stade Brestois 29's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Rennes against 1.70 for Stade Brestois 29. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Rennes have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Stade Brestois 29 managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Sep 2023, ended Rennes 0–0 Stade Brestois 29 — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Rennes an edge — 3 wins from 5 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading Data
Rennes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 27 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 26%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Stade Brestois 29 goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 22 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rennes 57% versus Stade Brestois 29 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rennes 59% | Stade Brestois 29 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rennes 1.48 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rennes attack 1.141 / defence 0.953 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.034 / defence 0.960. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.354. Data: built from Rennes's last 68 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 68.
Result probabilities: Rennes 40% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 34%. Fair-value odds: Rennes 2.49 | Draw 3.83 | Stade Brestois 29 2.96. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rennes as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Rennes 3 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rennes if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.81 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Rennes's last 10 home games and Stade Brestois 29's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rennes 70% (last 10 home games) | Stade Brestois 29 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Roazhon Park • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 17:05 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rennes 40% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% (Under 47%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG Rennes 1.48 / Stade Brestois 29 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Rennes attack 1.141 / def 0.953 | Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.034 / def 0.960 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Rennes (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Rennes xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Stade Brestois 29 xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 FAQs
What time does Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 kick off?
Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 kicked off at 17:05 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Roazhon Park.
What was the final score in Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Rennes 4 - 5 Stade Brestois 29.
Where is Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 being played?
The match is being played at Roazhon Park.
What competition is Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 part of?
Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our statistical model gives Rennes a 40% chance of winning, Stade Brestois 29 a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rennes the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Rennes's attack rating (1.14) and Stade Brestois 29's defence rating (0.96), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Stade Brestois 29's attack (1.03x) against Rennes's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from Rennes's last 68 games and Stade Brestois 29's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rennes Win
40%
2.49
26%
3.83
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Rennes xG
Total xG
2.81
1.33
Stade Brestois 29 xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.34
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
11%
9.46
8%
12.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 8.0 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.3 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Rennes and 1.33 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Rennes's recent record stands at 32W 14D 22L from 68 games, a 1.62 PPG return, with W-L-L-L-W in the last five.
Stade Brestois 29, meanwhile, have gone 26W 19D 23L across 68 games — 1.43 PPG, with D-W-W-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.62 PPG for Rennes against 1.43 for Stade Brestois 29. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Rennes have managed 22W 3D 9L from their last 34 home games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.62 PPG overall — Rennes are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Stade Brestois 29's away record stands at 11W 9D 14L across their last 34 away games, a 1.24 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rennes come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Rennes are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Stade Brestois 29 are on 1.29 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rennes
Current Season
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
Rennes (Home) vs Stade Brestois 29 (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rennes
Current Season
Stade Brestois 29
Current Season
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 Form FAQs
What form are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 in coming into this match?
Rennes have gone 32W 14D 22L in their last 68 games (1.62 PPG), while Stade Brestois 29 have gone 26W 19D 23L in their last 68 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rennes at home or Stade Brestois 29 away?
Rennes's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rennes at home: 2.03 PPG; Stade Brestois 29 away: 1.24 PPG.
Have Rennes or Stade Brestois 29 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rennes have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29, the earliest from August 2021. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was on 4 April 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Rennes have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rennes have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Stade Brestois 29 — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rennes
3
Draws
2
Stade Brestois 29
Recent Meetings
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rennes have won 5, Stade Brestois 29 have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 4 April 2026: Stade Brestois 29 3-4 Rennes.
Who has won more matches between Rennes and Stade Brestois 29?
Rennes have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Rennes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Stade Brestois 29 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rennes 56%, Stade Brestois 29 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Rennes) and 47% (Stade Brestois 29). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rennes keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Stade Brestois 29 in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rennes home games / Stade Brestois 29 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rennes vs Stade Brestois 29 Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Rennes's recent matches and 53% of Stade Brestois 29's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Rennes's matches and 47% of Stade Brestois 29's.
Do Rennes and Stade Brestois 29 matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of Rennes's recent matches and 65% of Stade Brestois 29's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Stade Brestois 29 defy the odds to beat Rennes 4-5.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Stade Brestois 29 beat Rennes 4-5 at Roazhon Park, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rennes 1.48 xG and Stade Brestois 29 1.33 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-5 for 9 actual goals. Rennes beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Stade Brestois 29 outscored their 1.33 projection by 3.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rennes attack 1.14 / defence 0.95 against Stade Brestois 29 attack 1.03 / defence 0.96, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rennes 40% | Draw 26% | Stade Brestois 29 34%, with Rennes to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Stade Brestois 29 win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rennes 59%, Stade Brestois 29 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rennes's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Stade Brestois 29's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rennes 1.62 PPG, Stade Brestois 29 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Stade Brestois 29 win broke the near-deadlock. Rennes (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 5 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Stade Brestois 29 (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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