Lorient 1-2 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Toulouse at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lorient vs Toulouse encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Lorient welcome Toulouse to Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off is Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Lorient — last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
Lorient's home record over their last 10 home games: 1W 2D 7L (0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.00 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Toulouse stand at 5W 2D 3L — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse away from home: 5W 1D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. Toulouse's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Lorient's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Lorient have won 0, Toulouse 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Dec 2023, ended Lorient 1–1 Toulouse — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Lorient in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 65% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 28%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Toulouse in-play tendencies (last 68 games, 34 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lorient 60% versus Toulouse 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lorient 62% | Toulouse 57%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Lorient surrender their half-time lead 28% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lorient 1.06 xG and Toulouse 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lorient attack 0.872 / defence 1.245 | Toulouse attack 1.058 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.341. Lorient's defence rating of 1.245 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Toulouse's projected output up. Data: built from Lorient's last 68 games and Toulouse's last 68.
Result probabilities: Lorient 22% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53%. Fair-value odds: Lorient 4.49 | Draw 4.11 | Toulouse 1.87. Toulouse hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Lorient's last 10 home games and Toulouse's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lorient 50% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lorient vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat • Kick-off: Sunday 28 April 2024 at 15:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lorient 22% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Lorient 1.06 / Toulouse 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Lorient attack 0.872 / def 1.245 | Toulouse attack 1.058 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Lorient xG
Expected Goals
1.77
Toulouse xG
55%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lorient vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Lorient vs Toulouse kick off?
Lorient vs Toulouse kicked off at 15:00 UK time on Sunday 28 April 2024 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What was the final score in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Lorient 1 - 2 Toulouse.
Where is Lorient vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat.
What competition is Lorient vs Toulouse part of?
Lorient vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lorient a 22% chance of winning, Toulouse a 53% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Lorient and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Lorient vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lorient's attack at 0.87x the league average against Toulouse's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.06 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Lorient's defence, projects 1.77 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lorient's last 68 games and Toulouse's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
22%
4.49
24%
4.11
53%
1.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Lorient xG
Total xG
2.83
1.77
Toulouse xG
4.49
22%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
1.87
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
17%
5.85
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
4%
26.28
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 11.1 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.1 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lorient vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lorient vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Lorient and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Lorient and 1.77 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Lorient vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, Lorient have picked up 1.19 PPG on a 21W 18D 29L record — D-L-L-L-L across the most recent five.
Toulouse's form line: 22W 19D 27L from 68 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-W-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lorient on 1.19 PPG, Toulouse on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lorient have posted 1.29 PPG from their last 34 home games (12W 8D 14L).
On the road, Toulouse have gone 13W 6D 15L from their last 34 away games — 1.32 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lorient are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.28 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lorient have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lorient
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
Lorient (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lorient
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Lorient vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Lorient and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lorient have gone 21W 18D 29L in their last 68 games (1.19 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 22W 19D 27L in their last 68 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lorient at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lorient at home: 1.29 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 12 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lorient's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Lorient
4
Draws
3
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Lorient vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lorient and Toulouse?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Lorient have won 0, Toulouse have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Lorient and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 September 2026: Lorient 2-2 Toulouse.
Who has won more matches between Lorient and Toulouse?
Toulouse have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lorient are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lorient 59%, Toulouse 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Lorient and 62% for Toulouse. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 15% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lorient have failed to score in 32% of games; Toulouse in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lorient home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lorient vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lorient and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Lorient's recent matches and 50% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Lorient and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Lorient's matches and 62% of Toulouse's.
Do Lorient and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 65% of Lorient's recent matches and 71% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Toulouse edge out Lorient 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Toulouse beat Lorient 1-2 at Stade du Moustoir - Yves Allainmat, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lorient 1.06 xG and Toulouse 1.77 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lorient attack 0.87 / defence 1.25 against Toulouse attack 1.06 / defence 0.92, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lorient 22% | Draw 24% | Toulouse 53%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lorient 62%, Toulouse 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lorient's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Toulouse's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lorient 1.19 PPG, Toulouse 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Toulouse win broke the near-deadlock. Toulouse (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 31
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →