Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Prediction & Preview
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Paris Saint Germain (53%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Paris Saint Germain face Le Havre.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Parc des Princes plays host to Paris Saint Germain versus Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 27). Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Paris Saint Germain have collected 2.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Paris Saint Germain at home: 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Le Havre (all games): 0W 2D 8L across their last 10 — 0.20 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Le Havre away from home: 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 2.10 in Paris Saint Germain's favour (2.30 vs 0.20) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) — Paris Saint Germain have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Le Havre in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Across the 7 H2H matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have had the better of this match-up — 6 wins, with Le Havre managing 0 and 1 draw.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 3.7 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 30 Oct 2026, ended Paris Saint Germain 5–1 Le Havre — a Paris Saint Germain win.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H data backs both Paris Saint Germain and goals — 6 wins from 7 H2H matches and an average of 3.7 goals per game give the home win and Over 2.5 combination a head-to-head case.
Trading Data
Paris Saint Germain goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 86% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; they lead at the break 54% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 43%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time.
Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Paris Saint Germain 48% versus Le Havre 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Paris Saint Germain 64% | Le Havre 36%). Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Paris Saint Germain recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 43% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Paris Saint Germain 1.97 xG and Le Havre 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.076 / defence 0.877 | Le Havre attack 1.112 / defence 1.162. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.312. Data: built from Paris Saint Germain's last 44 games and Le Havre's last 44.
Result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 53% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 24%. Fair-value odds: Paris Saint Germain 1.89 | Draw 4.33 | Le Havre 4.15. Paris Saint Germain hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS Yes probability 63% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.28) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Paris Saint Germain at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Paris Saint Germain if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Paris Saint Germain's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.7 goals per game across 7 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 63% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Paris Saint Germain 60% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 27 | Venue: Parc des Princes • Kick-off: Saturday 10 April 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Paris Saint Germain 53% | Draw 23% | Le Havre 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% (Under 37%) | BTTS Yes 63% (No 37%) | xG Paris Saint Germain 1.97 / Le Havre 1.28 • Poisson strength factors: Paris Saint Germain attack 1.076 / def 0.877 | Le Havre attack 1.112 / def 1.162 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.312 • Poisson stance: Paris Saint Germain (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Paris Saint Germain xG
Expected Goals
1.28
Le Havre xG
63%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre FAQs
What time does Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre kick off?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Parc des Princes.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre being played?
The match is being played at Parc des Princes.
What competition is Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre part of?
Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 27) (France).
Who is favourite to win Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our statistical model gives Paris Saint Germain a 53% chance of winning, Le Havre a 24% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Paris Saint Germain the favourite.
Will both teams score in Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Paris Saint Germain's attack rating (1.08) and Le Havre's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Le Havre's attack (1.11x) against Paris Saint Germain's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 1.28.
These ratings are built from Paris Saint Germain's last 44 games and Le Havre's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Paris Saint Germain Win
53%
1.89
23%
4.33
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
1 – 0
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Paris Saint Germain xG
Total xG
3.25
1.28
Le Havre xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.33
23%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.69
Clean Sheet
28%
3.60
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
3%
29.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 5.0 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 9.8 | 6.3 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.6 | 6.2 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 6.3 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Paris Saint Germain and 1.28 for Le Havre, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Paris Saint Germain's recent record stands at 31W 6D 7L from 44 games, a 2.25 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Le Havre, meanwhile, have gone 7W 16D 21L across 44 games — 0.84 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris Saint Germain by 1.41 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Le Havre heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Paris Saint Germain have managed 15W 3D 3L from their last 21 home games — 2.29 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Le Havre's away record stands at 2W 7D 12L across their last 21 away games, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Paris Saint Germain come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Paris Saint Germain are averaging 2.18 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Le Havre are on 0.93 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Defensively: Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
Paris Saint Germain (Home) vs Le Havre (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Paris Saint Germain
Blended
Le Havre
Blended
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Form FAQs
What form are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre in coming into this match?
Paris Saint Germain have gone 31W 6D 7L in their last 44 games (2.25 PPG), while Le Havre have gone 7W 16D 21L in their last 44 (0.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Paris Saint Germain at home or Le Havre away?
Paris Saint Germain's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Paris Saint Germain at home: 2.29 PPG; Le Havre away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Paris Saint Germain or Le Havre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Paris Saint Germain have kept a clean sheet in 48% of their recent games, Le Havre in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 7 H2H matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre, the earliest from December 2023. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Paris Saint Germain have won the most recent 5 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Paris Saint Germain won Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain on 30 Oct 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Paris Saint Germain have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Le Havre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
6
Paris Saint Germain
1
Draws
0
Le Havre
Recent Meetings
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Paris Saint Germain have won 6, Le Havre have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: Le Havre 1-5 Paris Saint Germain.
Who has won more matches between Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre?
Paris Saint Germain have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Paris Saint Germain are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Paris Saint Germain 43%, Le Havre 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Paris Saint Germain) and 29% (Le Havre).
On the defensive side: Paris Saint Germain keep a clean sheet in 57% of their matches; Le Havre in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Paris Saint Germain home games / Le Havre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Paris Saint Germain vs Le Havre Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 48% of Le Havre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Paris Saint Germain's recent games and 29% of Le Havre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Paris Saint Germain and Le Havre matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 86% of Paris Saint Germain's recent matches and 62% of Le Havre's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.
Related fixtures
More Ligue 1 fixtures — matchday 27
All Ligue 1 fixtures →
More French football predictions →