Nice 0-0 Monaco – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Nice at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nice vs Monaco fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Ligue 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Nice welcome Monaco to Allianz Riviera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 February 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Nice — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Nice's home record at Allianz Riviera: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Nice are significantly better at Allianz Riviera than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Monaco stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Monaco, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Monaco have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nice at 0.50 PPG versus Monaco's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Nice, 4 for Monaco and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Nice in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (54 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Nice 68% and Monaco 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 59% | Monaco 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 1.48 xG and Monaco 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 0.979 / defence 1.115 | Monaco attack 0.861 / defence 1.021. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.231. Data: 54 Nice games / 54 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 44% | Draw 26% | Monaco 30%. Fair-value odds: Nice 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Monaco 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Nice at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Nice offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.66 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Nice 60% | Monaco 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Feb 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 44% | Draw 26% | Monaco 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Nice 1.48 / Monaco 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 0.979 / def 1.115 | Monaco attack 0.861 / def 1.021 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.231 • Poisson stance: Nice (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Monaco xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Monaco kick off?
Nice vs Monaco kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Monaco?
Nice 0 - 0 Monaco.
Where is Nice vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Monaco part of?
Nice vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 44% chance of winning, Monaco a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Nice and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Monaco?
Record (9 meetings): Nice 3W | Draws 2 | Monaco 4W.
What form are Nice and Monaco in?
Nice (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Monaco (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Nice's attack at 0.98x the league average against Monaco's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Nice's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 54/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.89
30%
3.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Nice xG
Total xG
2.66
1.18
Monaco xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.29
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
7%
14.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Nice and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Nice and 1.18 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 54 outings, Nice have picked up 1.52 PPG on a 23W 13D 18L record — L-D-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Monaco's form line: 26W 10D 18L from 54 games, 1.63 PPG, last five L-L-L-D-W. The sample for Monaco is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nice on 1.52 PPG, Monaco on 1.63. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Nice have posted 1.96 PPG from 26 outings (15W 6D 5L). That's noticeably better than their 1.52 PPG overall — Nice are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Monaco have gone 8W 6D 12L from 26 away games — 1.15 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.63 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Monaco's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Nice are averaging 1.72 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.76 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Nice have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Monaco in 61%.
Last 54 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Monaco
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Monaco in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 23W 13D 18L in their last 54 games (1.52 PPG), while Monaco have gone 26W 10D 18L in their last 54 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Monaco away?
Nice's home record (1.96 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 1.96 PPG; Monaco away: 1.15 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Feb 2023, when Nice won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Nice's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Nice
3
Draws
4
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Monaco?
From 10 meetings on record, Nice have won 3, Monaco have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Nice 0-0 Monaco.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 58%, Monaco 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Nice) and 62% (Monaco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 31% and 31% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Nice's games and 65% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Nice vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Nice's matches and 62% of Monaco's.
Do Nice and Monaco tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Monaco in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nice's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 21, as Nice and Monaco drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 1.48 xG and Monaco 1.18 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nice fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Monaco landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 0.98 / defence 1.11 against Monaco attack 0.86 / defence 1.02, drawn from 54/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 44% | Draw 26% | Monaco 30%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 59%, Monaco 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (54 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Monaco's trading profile (54 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.52 PPG, Monaco 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nice (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Monaco (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.54 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.