Nice 1-1 Auxerre – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Nice at 65% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Nice vs Auxerre encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Nice and Auxerre meet at Allianz Riviera in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Friday 14 March 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Nice have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Nice, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Allianz Riviera, Nice have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Auxerre (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Ligue 1 outings this term — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Auxerre, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Ligue 1 this season, Auxerre have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Nice's 2.20 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Auxerre's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Nice have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Auxerre in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Nice lead 0W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Auxerre winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Nice — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games).
Auxerre — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nice 52% versus Auxerre 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nice 46% | Auxerre 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nice 2.25 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nice attack 1.175 / defence 0.777 | Auxerre attack 0.931 / defence 1.285. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.402. Auxerre bring a strong defensive rating of 1.285 — this is suppressing Nice's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Nice's defence rating of 0.777 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 59 Nice games / 25 Auxerre games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nice 65% | Draw 20% | Auxerre 15%. Fair-value odds: Nice 1.54 | Draw 5.00 | Auxerre 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Nice (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Nice are the pick at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.27 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nice 60% | Auxerre 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nice vs Auxerre | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Allianz Riviera • Kick-off: Friday 14 Mar 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nice 65% | Draw 20% | Auxerre 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 58% | xG Nice 2.25 / Auxerre 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Nice attack 1.175 / def 0.777 | Auxerre attack 0.931 / def 1.285 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.402 • Poisson stance: Nice (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Nice xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Auxerre xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nice vs Auxerre kick off?
Nice vs Auxerre kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 March 2025 at Allianz Riviera.
What was the final score in Nice vs Auxerre?
Nice 1 - 1 Auxerre.
Where is Nice vs Auxerre being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Riviera.
What competition is Nice vs Auxerre part of?
Nice vs Auxerre is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nice vs Auxerre?
Our statistical model gives Nice a 65% chance of winning, Auxerre a 15% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Nice the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nice vs Auxerre?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Nice and Auxerre will score (BTTS).
Will Nice vs Auxerre have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
Record (3 meetings): Nice 0W | Draws 2 | Auxerre 1W.
What form are Nice and Auxerre in?
Nice (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Auxerre (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Nice's attack at 1.18x the league average against Auxerre's defence at 1.28x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Auxerre's attack (0.93x) against Nice's defence (0.78x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 59/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nice Win
65%
1.54
20%
4.98
15%
6.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
1 – 1
8.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Nice xG
Total xG
3.27
1.01
Auxerre xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.98
20%
Draw
6.61
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.36
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
10%
9.54
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
63.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 8.6 | 8.7 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.3 | 7.4 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nice vs Auxerre?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Nice and Auxerre expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Nice and 1.01 for Auxerre, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Nice vs Auxerre?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Nice have picked up 1.71 PPG on a 28W 17D 14L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Nice is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Auxerre's form line: 28W 16D 15L from 59 games, 1.69 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Auxerre is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.71 PPG for Nice against 1.69 for Auxerre. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Nice have posted 2.00 PPG from 29 outings (17W 7D 5L).
On the road, Auxerre have gone 10W 7D 12L from 29 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.69 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Auxerre's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Nice come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Nice are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Auxerre are on 1.73 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nice
Blended
Auxerre
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nice and Auxerre in coming into this match?
Nice have gone 28W 17D 14L in their last 59 games (1.71 PPG), while Auxerre have gone 28W 16D 15L in their last 59 (1.69 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nice at home or Auxerre away?
Nice's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nice at home: 2.00 PPG; Auxerre away: 1.28 PPG.
Have Nice or Auxerre been keeping clean sheets recently?
Nice have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Auxerre in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
Auxerre have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nice have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Auxerre — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Nice
3
Draws
3
Auxerre
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nice and Auxerre?
From 7 meetings on record, Nice have won 1, Auxerre have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Nice and Auxerre last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Auxerre 1-0 Nice.
Who has won more matches between Nice and Auxerre?
Auxerre have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nice are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nice 45%, Auxerre 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Nice) and 55% (Auxerre).
On the defensive side: Nice keep a clean sheet in 52% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nice home games / Auxerre away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nice play Auxerre?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Nice's recent matches and 62% of Auxerre's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nice vs Auxerre usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Nice's recent games and 55% of Auxerre's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nice and Auxerre tend to score early?
Nice have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Auxerre in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Nice and Auxerre share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Nice and Auxerre finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Riviera, Regular Season - 26, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nice 2.25 xG and Auxerre 1.01 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Nice fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nice attack 1.18 / defence 0.78 against Auxerre attack 0.93 / defence 1.28, drawn from 59/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nice 65% | Draw 20% | Auxerre 15%, with Nice to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nice 46%, Auxerre 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nice's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Auxerre's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nice 1.71 PPG, Auxerre 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.