Nantes 0-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Nantes vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Toulouse travel to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to take on Nantes. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Nantes stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Nantes have posted 3W 3D 4L at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Toulouse — All Games: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this season — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nantes at 1.00 PPG versus Toulouse's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Nantes, 1 for Toulouse and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 56% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 47% | Toulouse 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.20 xG and Toulouse 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.859 / defence 0.812 | Toulouse attack 1.047 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.424. Data: 64 Nantes games / 64 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Nantes 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.78 | Draw 3.57 | Toulouse 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Nantes 50% | Toulouse 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 49% | xG Nantes 1.20 / Toulouse 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.859 / def 0.812 | Toulouse attack 1.047 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Toulouse xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Nantes vs Toulouse kick off?
Nantes vs Toulouse kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Nantes 0 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Nantes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Toulouse part of?
Nantes vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 36% chance of winning, Toulouse a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nantes and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Nantes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
Record (5 meetings): Nantes 2W | Draws 2 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in?
Nantes (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-W-L-D. Toulouse (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.62
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.41
1.21
Toulouse xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nantes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nantes and 1.21 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes's recent record stands at 16W 16D 32L from 64 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 27L across 64 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantes on 1.00 PPG, Toulouse on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 7W 8D 16L from 31 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 12W 6D 13L across 31 trips, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 16W 16D 32L in their last 64 games (1.00 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 20W 17D 27L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.94 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Nantes and Toulouse runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Nantes's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Nantes
4
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
From 7 meetings on record, Nantes have won 2, Toulouse have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Toulouse?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 52%, Toulouse 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nantes) and 55% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 32% of games; Toulouse in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Nantes play Toulouse?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nantes's recent matches and 45% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Nantes vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nantes's recent games and 55% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Toulouse tend to score early?
Nantes have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nantes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 31, as Nantes and Toulouse drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.20 xG and Toulouse 1.21 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Toulouse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 47%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.00 PPG, Toulouse 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.