Montpellier 0-0 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Reims at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Montpellier vs Reims encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 31 sees Reims travel to Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 to take on Montpellier. The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025, 16:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Montpellier stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Montpellier's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Montpellier are significantly better at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Reims have recorded 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Reims away from home this season: 2W 3D 5L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Reims's 1.00 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Montpellier's 0.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Montpellier, 2 for Reims and 3 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.6 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 2–4 with Reims winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Montpellier in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Reims in-play and half-time data (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Montpellier 48% versus Reims 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Montpellier 55% | Reims 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Montpellier 0.90 xG and Reims 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Montpellier attack 0.667 / defence 1.454 | Reims attack 0.752 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.424. Montpellier's attack strength of 0.667 is below the league average — the 0.90 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 64 Montpellier games / 64 Reims games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Montpellier 22% | Draw 26% | Reims 53%. Fair-value odds: Montpellier 4.55 | Draw 3.85 | Reims 1.89. Reims hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Reims at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Reims offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.45 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.6 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates corroborate: Montpellier 60% | Reims 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Montpellier vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98 • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Apr 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Montpellier 22% | Draw 26% | Reims 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Montpellier 0.90 / Reims 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Montpellier attack 0.667 / def 1.454 | Reims attack 0.752 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Reims (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Montpellier xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Reims xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Montpellier vs Reims kick off?
Montpellier vs Reims kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What was the final score in Montpellier vs Reims?
Montpellier 0 - 0 Reims.
Where is Montpellier vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98.
What competition is Montpellier vs Reims part of?
Montpellier vs Reims is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Montpellier vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Montpellier a 22% chance of winning, Reims a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Reims the favourite.
Will both teams score in Montpellier vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Montpellier and Reims will score (BTTS).
Will Montpellier vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Reims?
Record (7 meetings): Montpellier 2W | Draws 3 | Reims 2W.
What form are Montpellier and Reims in?
Montpellier (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Reims (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Montpellier's attack at 0.67x the league average against Reims's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 0.90 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Reims's attack versus Montpellier's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-2 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Reims Win
22%
4.61
26%
3.92
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Montpellier xG
Total xG
2.45
1.56
Reims xG
4.61
22%
Home win
3.92
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
5%
21.85
22%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 13.4 | 10.4 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 5.4 | 4.2 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Montpellier vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Montpellier and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Montpellier and 1.56 for Reims, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Montpellier vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Montpellier come into this having played 64 games, going 14W 15D 35L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-L-L.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.23 PPG from 64 outings (21W 16D 27L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Montpellier on 0.89 PPG, Reims on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Montpellier's home form reads 6W 11D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.16 points per game from 31 outings (9W 9D 13L).
Goals in Recent Form
Montpellier are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.16 scored and 1.39 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Montpellier
Current Season
Reims
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Montpellier and Reims in coming into this match?
Montpellier have gone 14W 15D 35L in their last 64 games (0.89 PPG), while Reims have gone 21W 16D 27L in their last 64 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Montpellier at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Montpellier at home: 0.94 PPG; Reims away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Ligue 1, Ligue 2 all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 27 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Montpellier's record when hosting Reims specifically: 0W 4D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Montpellier
5
Draws
3
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Montpellier and Reims?
From 10 meetings on record, Montpellier have won 2, Reims have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Montpellier and Reims last play each other?
They last met on 27 February 2026, when Montpellier 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Montpellier and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Montpellier are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Montpellier 55%, Reims 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Montpellier) and 61% (Reims). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Montpellier have failed to score in 36% of games; Reims in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Montpellier home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Montpellier play Reims?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Montpellier's games and 64% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Montpellier vs Reims usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Montpellier's matches and 61% of Reims's.
Do Montpellier and Reims tend to score early?
Montpellier have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Reims in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Montpellier's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Montpellier and Reims finished level at 0-0 at Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98, Regular Season - 31, in the Ligue 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Montpellier 0.90 xG and Reims 1.56 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Montpellier fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Reims landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Montpellier attack 0.67 / defence 1.45 against Reims attack 0.75 / defence 0.90, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Montpellier 22% | Draw 26% | Reims 53%, with Reims to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Montpellier 55%, Reims 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Montpellier's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reims's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Montpellier 0.89 PPG, Reims 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Montpellier (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. Reims (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.23 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.55 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.