Nantes 0-0 Toulouse – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Nantes face Toulouse.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Toulouse travel to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to take on Nantes in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:15 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Nantes stand at 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Nantes have posted 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Toulouse — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Toulouse's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Nantes at 1.00 PPG versus Toulouse's 0.80. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The H2H picture is flat: the 5 H2H matches we hold have produced 2 wins for Nantes, 1 for Toulouse and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 18 Aug 2024, ended Nantes 0–0 Toulouse — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Nantes trading profile (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Toulouse trading profile (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 68% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 21 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 56% versus Toulouse 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 47% | Toulouse 56%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Nantes surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Toulouse have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.20 xG and Toulouse 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.859 / defence 0.812 | Toulouse attack 1.047 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.501 / away 1.424. Data: built from Nantes's last 64 games and Toulouse's last 64.
Result probabilities: Nantes 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.79 | Draw 3.62 | Toulouse 2.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Toulouse at 37% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantes 50% (last 10 home games) | Toulouse 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 31 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 27 April 2025 at 17:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% (Under 57%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Nantes 1.20 / Toulouse 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.859 / def 0.812 | Toulouse attack 1.047 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.501 / away 1.424 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Toulouse xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantes vs Toulouse FAQs
What time does Nantes vs Toulouse kick off?
Nantes vs Toulouse kicked off at 17:15 UK time on Sunday 27 April 2025 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Nantes 0 - 0 Toulouse.
Where is Nantes vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Toulouse part of?
Nantes vs Toulouse is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 31) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 36% chance of winning, Toulouse a 37% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Nantes and Toulouse will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Nantes vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (57%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Nantes's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Toulouse's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Nantes's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Nantes's last 64 games and Toulouse's last 64 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.7%), 0-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
36%
2.79
28%
3.62
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.9%
Away win
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.41
1.21
Toulouse xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
11%
9.37
11%
9.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 10.9 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantes vs Toulouse Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Nantes and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Nantes and 1.21 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Nantes's recent record stands at 16W 16D 32L from 64 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-D in the last five.
Toulouse, meanwhile, have gone 20W 17D 27L across 64 games — 1.20 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Nantes on 1.00 PPG, Toulouse on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Nantes have managed 7W 8D 16L from their last 31 home games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Toulouse's away record stands at 12W 6D 13L across their last 31 away games, a 1.35 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Toulouse come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Nantes are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.25 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
Nantes (Home) vs Toulouse (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantes
Current Season
Toulouse
Current Season
❓ Nantes vs Toulouse Form FAQs
What form are Nantes and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 16W 16D 32L in their last 64 games (1.00 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 20W 17D 27L in their last 64 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Toulouse away?
Toulouse's away record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.94 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.35 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to August 2022. All of them came in Ligue 1. The most recent in our data was on 27 September 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The most recent 3 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
Nantes's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Nantes
4
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantes vs Toulouse H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Toulouse?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantes have won 2, Toulouse have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Toulouse last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 September 2025: Toulouse 2-2 Nantes.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Toulouse?
Nantes have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 56% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 52%, Toulouse 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Nantes) and 55% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 32% of games; Toulouse in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantes vs Toulouse Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantes and Toulouse matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Nantes's recent matches and 45% of Toulouse's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Nantes and Toulouse matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Nantes's recent games and 55% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Nantes and Toulouse matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 64% of Nantes's recent matches and 68% of Toulouse's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Nantes's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 31, as Nantes and Toulouse drew 0-0 in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.20 xG and Toulouse 1.21 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Nantes fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Toulouse landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.86 / defence 0.81 against Toulouse attack 1.05 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 36% | Draw 28% | Toulouse 37%, with Toulouse to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 47%, Toulouse 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Toulouse's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.00 PPG, Toulouse 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Nantes (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. Toulouse (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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