Nantes 1-2 Reims – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Nantes at 37%, yet the head-to-head data favours Reims — this Nantes vs Reims fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Reims make the trip to Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau to face Nantes in Ligue 1 (matchday 4). The match kicks off on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form
Nantes (all games): 3W 3D 4L across their last 10 — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Nantes at home: 1W 0D 9L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.30 lags behind their overall 1.20 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Reims's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W W L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reims's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Nantes, 1.20 for Reims — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head sample leans to Reims, who have 4 wins from 6 H2H matches compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draw.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.7 per game across the 6 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Jan 2024, ended Nantes 0–0 Reims — a draw.
Reims have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Data
Nantes goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Reims goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Nantes 43% versus Reims 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Nantes 46% | Reims 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Nantes 1.46 xG and Reims 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Nantes attack 0.901 / defence 0.991 | Reims attack 1.067 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.363. Data: built from Nantes's last 37 games and Reims's last 37.
Result probabilities: Nantes 37% | Draw 26% | Reims 37%. Fair-value odds: Nantes 2.67 | Draw 3.86 | Reims 2.73. The model can't separate the sides — both are rated at 37% to win, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean here.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 59% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model can't separate the sides — Nantes 37% and Reims 37%, with the draw at 26%. There is no result lean from the model; the goals and BTTS markets below are where it has a view.
Poisson projects 2.90 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 55% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (Nantes's last 10 home games and Reims's last 10 away games) averaging 2.9 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging only 1.7 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 59% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Nantes 40% (last 10 home games) | Reims 80% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Nantes vs Reims | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 4 | Venue: Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau • Kick-off: Sunday 15 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Nantes 37% | Draw 26% | Reims 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 59% (No 41%) | xG Nantes 1.46 / Reims 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Nantes attack 0.901 / def 0.991 | Reims attack 1.067 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.529 / away 1.363 • Poisson stance: no clear lean — Nantes and Reims level at 37% — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Nantes xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Reims xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Nantes vs Reims FAQs
What time does Nantes vs Reims kick off?
Nantes vs Reims kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What was the final score in Nantes vs Reims?
Nantes 1 - 2 Reims.
Where is Nantes vs Reims being played?
The match is being played at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau.
What competition is Nantes vs Reims part of?
Nantes vs Reims is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 4) (France).
Who is favourite to win Nantes vs Reims?
Our statistical model gives Nantes a 37% chance of winning, Reims a 37% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Nantes vs Reims?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Nantes and Reims will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Nantes vs Reims have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Nantes's attack rating (0.90) and Reims's defence rating (1.06), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Reims's attack (1.07x) against Nantes's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.44.
These ratings are built from Nantes's last 37 games and Reims's last 37 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Nantes Win
37%
2.67
26%
3.86
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.4%
Home win
1 – 2
8.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Nantes xG
Total xG
2.90
1.44
Reims xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
24%
4.22
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
9%
11.28
9%
11.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 7.9 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 11.6 | 8.3 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 8.4 | 6.1 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Nantes vs Reims Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Nantes vs Reims?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Nantes and Reims expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Nantes and 1.44 for Reims, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Nantes vs Reims?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Nantes come into this having played 37 games, going 11W 7D 19L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-W.
On the other side, Reims sit at 1.38 PPG from 37 outings (14W 9D 14L), a run that reads W-W-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Nantes against 1.38 for Reims. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Nantes's home form reads 4W 3D 11L across their last 18 home games, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Reims have taken 1.17 points per game from their last 18 away games (5W 6D 7L).
Attack vs Defence
Nantes are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Reims are on 1.24 scored and 1.41 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reims in 65%.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Nantes
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
Nantes (Home) vs Reims (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Nantes
Early Season
Reims
Early Season
❓ Nantes vs Reims Form FAQs
What form are Nantes and Reims in coming into this match?
Nantes have gone 11W 7D 19L in their last 37 games (1.08 PPG), while Reims have gone 14W 9D 14L in their last 37 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Nantes at home or Reims away?
Reims's away record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Nantes at home: 0.83 PPG; Reims away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 9 H2H matches between Nantes and Reims, the earliest from September 2021. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 1, Ligue 2. The most recent was as recently as 10 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Reims won Nantes 0-3 Reims on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Nantes have gone 1W 1D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reims — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
2
Nantes
2
Draws
5
Reims
Recent Meetings
❓ Nantes vs Reims H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Nantes and Reims?
Across the 9 head-to-head matches in our data, Nantes have won 2, Reims have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Nantes and Reims last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 10 October 2026: Nantes 0-0 Reims.
Who has won more matches between Nantes and Reims?
Reims have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 9 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Nantes are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Reims are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Nantes 44%, Reims 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Nantes) and 67% (Reims). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Nantes have failed to score in 39% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Nantes home games / Reims away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Nantes vs Reims Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Nantes and Reims matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 44% of Nantes's games and 83% of Reims's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Nantes and Reims matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 44% of Nantes's matches and 67% of Reims's.
Do Nantes and Reims matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 61% of Nantes's recent matches and 67% of Reims's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reims defy the odds to beat Nantes 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reims beat Nantes 1-2 at Stade de la Beaujoire - Louis Fonteneau, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Nantes 1.46 xG and Reims 1.44 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Nantes attack 0.90 / defence 0.99 against Reims attack 1.07 / defence 1.06, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Nantes 37% | Draw 26% | Reims 37%, with Nantes to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Reims win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Nantes 46%, Reims 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Nantes's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Reims's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Nantes 1.08 PPG, Reims 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reims win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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