Auxerre 0-3 Monaco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Monaco at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Auxerre vs Monaco encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Ligue 1 encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees Monaco travel to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to take on Auxerre. The game is scheduled for Saturday 14 September 2024, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Auxerre stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Ligue 1 matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Auxerre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Auxerre's home record at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps: 7W 3D 0L from 10 Ligue 1 appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.50 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Auxerre are significantly better at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps than their overall form suggests.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Monaco have recorded 8W 1D 1L from 10 outings — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Monaco have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monaco away from home this season: 8W 1D 1L from 10 away games — 2.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.40 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Monaco — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.50 vs 1.60). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Auxerre have won 0, Monaco 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 5.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 1 Feb 2023, ended 2–3 with Monaco winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Auxerre in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Monaco in-play and half-time data (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 57% versus Monaco 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 51% | Monaco 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.15 xG and Monaco 1.68 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.942 / defence 1.071 | Monaco attack 1.153 / defence 0.793. League average goals — home 1.538 / away 1.361. Monaco's defence strength of 0.793 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 3 Auxerre games / 37 Monaco games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Monaco 49%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 4.00 | Draw 4.00 | Monaco 2.04. Monaco hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Monaco as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Monaco offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 50% | Monaco 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Monaco | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Saturday 14 Sep 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Monaco 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Auxerre 1.15 / Monaco 1.68 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.942 / def 1.071 | Monaco attack 1.153 / def 0.793 | league avg home 1.538 / away 1.361 • Poisson stance: Monaco (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.68
Monaco xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Monaco kick off?
Auxerre vs Monaco kicked off at 18:00 on Saturday 14 September 2024 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Monaco?
Auxerre 0 - 3 Monaco.
Where is Auxerre vs Monaco being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Monaco part of?
Auxerre vs Monaco is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 25% chance of winning, Monaco a 49% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Monaco the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Auxerre and Monaco will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Monaco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
Record (2 meetings): Auxerre 0W | Draws 0 | Monaco 2W.
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in?
Auxerre (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-W-L-L. Monaco (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.94x the league average against Monaco's defence at 0.79x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Monaco's attack versus Auxerre's defence, projects 1.68 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 3/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Monaco Win
25%
3.93
25%
3.96
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.9%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.83
1.68
Monaco xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.96
25%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
19%
5.38
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
5%
21.11
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 9.9 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.9 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Monaco expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.68 for Monaco, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Monaco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Auxerre come into this having played 37 games, going 21W 9D 7L for 1.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Auxerre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monaco sit at 2.00 PPG from 37 outings (22W 8D 7L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monaco, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Auxerre on 1.95 PPG, Monaco on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Auxerre's home form reads 13W 4D 1L across 18 games on their own ground, a 2.39 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.95 PPG overall — Auxerre are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Monaco have taken 2.06 points per game from 18 outings (11W 4D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Auxerre are averaging 1.86 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; Monaco are on 1.95 scored and 1.16 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
Defensively: Monaco in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Early Season
Monaco
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Monaco in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 21W 9D 7L in their last 37 games (1.95 PPG), while Monaco have gone 22W 8D 7L in their last 37 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Monaco away?
Auxerre's home record (2.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.39 PPG; Monaco away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Monaco been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Monaco in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 19 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Sep 2024, when Monaco won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Auxerre's record when hosting Monaco specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Auxerre
1
Draws
5
Monaco
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Monaco?
From 6 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 0, Monaco have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Monaco last play each other?
They last met on 19 April 2026, when Monaco 2-2 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Monaco?
Monaco have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Monaco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 56%, Monaco 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Auxerre and 67% for Monaco. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 56% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Monaco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Monaco?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Auxerre's games and 67% of Monaco's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Auxerre vs Monaco usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Auxerre's matches and 67% of Monaco's.
Do Auxerre and Monaco tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Monaco in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Monaco run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Monaco beat Auxerre 0-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 4, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.15 xG and Monaco 1.68 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Monaco outscored their 1.68 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.94 / defence 1.07 against Monaco attack 1.15 / defence 0.79, drawn from 3/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 25% | Draw 25% | Monaco 49%, with Monaco to win its most likely call at 49%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 51%, Monaco 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Monaco's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.95 PPG, Monaco 2.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Monaco win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.28 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Monaco (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.56 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.