Lille vs Toulouse – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Toulouse at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lille vs Toulouse fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lille host Toulouse at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 10 April 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lille — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Ligue 1 outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lille at Stade Pierre-Mauroy this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Across all Ligue 1 games this season, Toulouse have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Toulouse have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Toulouse's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Ligue 1 this season (1.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lille 1.80 PPG, Toulouse 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Lille have dominated this rivalry, winning 7 of 9 past contests while Toulouse have managed just 1 wins.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2026, ended 1–0 with Lille winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lille and goals. The home side's 7 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Patterns
Lille in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Toulouse in-play and half-time data (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lille 38% versus Toulouse 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lille 35% | Toulouse 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lille 1.35 xG and Toulouse 1.41 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lille attack 0.912 / defence 0.780 | Toulouse attack 1.295 / defence 0.939. League average goals — home 1.581 / away 1.392. Toulouse have an above-average attack strength of 1.295 — the away xG of 1.41 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Lille's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Lille games / 40 Toulouse games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lille 36% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 38%. Fair-value odds: Lille 2.78 | Draw 4.00 | Toulouse 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Toulouse are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Toulouse offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.76 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lille 40% | Toulouse 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lille vs Toulouse | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Stade Pierre-Mauroy • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Apr 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lille 36% | Draw 25% | Toulouse 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG Lille 1.35 / Toulouse 1.41 • Poisson strength factors: Lille attack 0.912 / def 0.780 | Toulouse attack 1.295 / def 0.939 | league avg home 1.581 / away 1.392 • Poisson stance: Toulouse (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Lille xG
Expected Goals
1.41
Toulouse xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lille vs Toulouse kick off?
Lille vs Toulouse is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 10 April 2027 at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
Where is Lille vs Toulouse being played?
The match is being played at Stade Pierre-Mauroy.
What competition is Lille vs Toulouse part of?
Lille vs Toulouse is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Lille vs Toulouse?
Our statistical model gives Lille a 36% chance of winning, Toulouse a 38% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Toulouse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lille vs Toulouse?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Lille and Toulouse will score (BTTS).
Will Lille vs Toulouse have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
Record (9 meetings): Lille 7W | Draws 1 | Toulouse 1W.
What form are Lille and Toulouse in?
Lille (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Toulouse (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lille's attack rating (0.91) and Toulouse's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.35 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Toulouse's attack versus Lille's defence, projects 1.41 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Toulouse Win
36%
2.77
25%
3.92
38%
2.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Lille xG
Total xG
2.76
1.41
Toulouse xG
2.77
36%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.60
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
4.08
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
9%
11.31
10%
10.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.9 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.0 | 8.5 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.8 | 8.2 | 5.7 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.7 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lille vs Toulouse?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Lille and Toulouse expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Lille and 1.41 for Toulouse, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Lille vs Toulouse?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lille come into this having played 40 games, going 22W 8D 10L for 1.85 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Toulouse sit at 1.32 PPG from 40 outings (14W 11D 15L), a run that reads L-D-W-D-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Toulouse, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.53 PPG clear of Toulouse — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lille's home form reads 9W 7D 4L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Toulouse have taken 1.30 points per game from 20 outings (7W 5D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Lille are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Toulouse are on 1.48 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lille
Early Season
Toulouse
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lille and Toulouse in coming into this match?
Lille have gone 22W 8D 10L in their last 40 games (1.85 PPG), while Toulouse have gone 14W 11D 15L in their last 40 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lille at home or Toulouse away?
Lille's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lille at home: 1.70 PPG; Toulouse away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Lille or Toulouse been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lille have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Toulouse in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lille and Toulouse runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 3 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Lille go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Apr 2026, when Lille won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lille's record when hosting Toulouse specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
7
Lille
1
Draws
1
Toulouse
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lille and Toulouse?
From 9 meetings on record, Lille have won 7, Toulouse have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lille and Toulouse last play each other?
They last met on 3 September 2026, when Toulouse 0-1 Lille.
Who has won more matches between Lille and Toulouse?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Toulouse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lille 50%, Toulouse 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Lille) and 65% (Toulouse).
On the defensive side: Lille keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lille home games / Toulouse away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lille play Toulouse?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Lille's games and 60% of Toulouse's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lille vs Toulouse usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Lille's recent games and 65% of Toulouse's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lille and Toulouse tend to score early?
Lille have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Toulouse in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.