Le Havre 1-1 Monaco – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Monaco at 56% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Le Havre face Monaco.

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Full Analysis

Stade Océane plays host to Le Havre versus Monaco in Ligue 1 (matchday 31). Kick-off: Saturday 26 April 2025 at 19:00 UK time.

Form

Le Havre (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.50 conceded. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

In front of their own supporters, Le Havre have posted 1W 1D 8L from their last 10 home games — 0.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.40 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Monaco have collected 1.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: W W L W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

When travelling, Monaco have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Le Havre against 1.70 for Monaco. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Le Havre's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) — Le Havre have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Monaco in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Monaco edge it 1 wins to 0, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Le Havre 1–3 Monaco — a Monaco win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading & In-Play

Le Havre — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 61% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.

Monaco — key trading statistics (last 64 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 52% versus Monaco 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Le Havre 55% | Monaco 64%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Le Havre surrender their half-time lead 27% of the time, while Monaco have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 36% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 1.24 xG and Monaco 2.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.798 / defence 1.523 | Monaco attack 0.945 / defence 1.039. League average goals — home 1.490 / away 1.434. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.798 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.24. Le Havre's defence rating of 1.523 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Monaco's projected output up. Data: built from Le Havre's last 64 games and Monaco's last 64.

Result probabilities: Le Havre 22% | Draw 21% | Monaco 56%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 4.46 | Draw 4.74 | Monaco 1.77. The model has a clear lean to Monaco (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS Yes probability 62% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% — both xG figures (1.24 / 2.06) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Monaco are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.30 combined xG gives a 64% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Le Havre's last 10 home games and Monaco's last 10 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Le Havre 60% (last 10 home games) | Monaco 80% (last 10 away games).

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