Le Havre vs Lille – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lille (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Le Havre face Lille.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lille make the trip to to face Le Havre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 May 2027 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Le Havre have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Ligue 1 outings this season: 1W 6D 3L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Le Havre have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Le Havre have posted 2W 4D 4L at — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Lille's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W L W D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. Lille have played only a handful of Ligue 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Lille have gone 8W 1D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.30 conceded per game. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Lille are 1.20 PPG clear of Le Havre in recent Ligue 1 fixtures (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head ledger leans to Lille, who have claimed 4 wins from 6 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 1 draws.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Lille have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading & In-Play
Le Havre — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Lille — key trading statistics (37 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 26% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Le Havre 51% versus Lille 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Le Havre 32% | Lille 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Le Havre 0.78 xG and Lille 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Le Havre attack 0.801 / defence 0.933 | Lille attack 1.046 / defence 0.648. League average goals — home 1.502 / away 1.327. Lille's defence strength of 0.648 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 36 Le Havre games / 37 Lille games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Le Havre 21% | Draw 32% | Lille 47%. Fair-value odds: Le Havre 4.76 | Draw 3.12 | Lille 2.13. Lille hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lille are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lille if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Le Havre 50% | Lille 20% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (36 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Le Havre vs Lille | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 22 May 2027, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Le Havre 21% | Draw 32% | Lille 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Le Havre 0.78 / Lille 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Le Havre attack 0.801 / def 0.933 | Lille attack 1.046 / def 0.648 | league avg home 1.502 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: Lille (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.78
Le Havre xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Lille xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Le Havre vs Lille kick off?
Le Havre vs Lille is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 22 May 2027.
What competition is Le Havre vs Lille part of?
Le Havre vs Lille is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Le Havre vs Lille?
Our statistical model gives Le Havre a 21% chance of winning, Lille a 47% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lille the favourite.
Will both teams score in Le Havre vs Lille?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Le Havre and Lille will score (BTTS).
Will Le Havre vs Lille have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lille?
Record (6 meetings): Le Havre 1W | Draws 1 | Lille 4W.
What form are Le Havre and Lille in?
Le Havre (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Lille (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Le Havre's attacking strength (0.80x league average) is weighed against Lille's defensive record (0.65x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.78. Flip it around — Lille's attack (1.05x) against Le Havre's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
The sample (36/37 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.3%), 0-0 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lille Win
21%
4.85
32%
3.08
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.78
Le Havre xG
Total xG
2.08
1.30
Lille xG
4.85
21%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.43
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.65
46%
2.18
Win to Nil
6%
17.72
21%
4.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.5 | 16.3 | 10.5 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 8.2 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 4.9 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Le Havre vs Lille?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Le Havre and Lille expected to score?
The model projects 0.78 expected goals for Le Havre and 1.30 for Lille, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Le Havre vs Lille?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 37 outings, Le Havre have picked up 0.97 PPG on a 7W 15D 15L record — L-W-L-D-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Le Havre, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lille's form line: 20W 8D 9L from 37 games, 1.84 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Lille, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Lille are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Le Havre.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Le Havre have posted 1.21 PPG from 19 outings (5W 8D 6L).
On the road, Lille have gone 12W 2D 5L from 19 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lille come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Le Havre are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Lille are on 1.54 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Lille in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Le Havre
Early Season
Lille
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Le Havre and Lille in coming into this match?
Le Havre have gone 7W 15D 15L in their last 37 games (0.97 PPG), while Lille have gone 20W 8D 9L in their last 37 (1.84 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Le Havre at home or Lille away?
Lille's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Le Havre at home: 1.21 PPG; Lille away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Le Havre or Lille been keeping clean sheets recently?
Le Havre have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Lille in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lille won 3-0 on 17 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Le Havre have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lille — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Le Havre
1
Draws
4
Lille
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Le Havre and Lille?
From 6 meetings on record, Le Havre have won 1, Lille have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Le Havre and Lille last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Lille 1-1 Le Havre.
Who has won more matches between Le Havre and Lille?
Lille have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Le Havre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Lille are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Le Havre 58%, Lille 26% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Le Havre) and 42% (Lille).
On the defensive side: Lille in 47%; Le Havre have failed to score in 37% of games; Lille in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Le Havre home games / Lille away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Le Havre play Lille?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Le Havre's recent matches and 26% of Lille's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Le Havre vs Lille usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Le Havre's recent games and 42% of Lille's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Le Havre and Lille tend to score early?
Le Havre have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Lille in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.