Clermont Foot 2-1 Le Havre – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Clermont Foot at 36%, yet in-form Le Havre provide a compelling counter-argument — this Clermont Foot vs Le Havre fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Stade Gabriel-Montpied plays host to Clermont Foot versus Le Havre in Ligue 1 (matchday 26). Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 14:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Clermont Foot have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters, Clermont Foot have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Le Havre's record over their last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Le Havre's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.

Le Havre arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, Le Havre edge it 1 wins to 0, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 24 Sep 2023, ended Clermont Foot 1–2 Le Havre — a Le Havre win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

Clermont Foot goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 25 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Le Havre goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 35% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Clermont Foot 52% versus Le Havre 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Clermont Foot 48% | Le Havre 35%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Clermont Foot surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Le Havre have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Le Havre surrender HT leads in 25% of cases while Clermont Foot recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 32% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Clermont Foot 1.20 xG and Le Havre 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Clermont Foot attack 0.779 / defence 1.296 | Le Havre attack 0.737 / defence 1.192. League average goals — home 1.294 / away 1.228. Clermont Foot's attack rating of 0.779 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.20. Le Havre's attack rating of 0.737 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Clermont Foot's defence rating of 1.296 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Le Havre's projected output up. Data: built from Clermont Foot's last 63 games and Le Havre's last 25.

Result probabilities: Clermont Foot 36% | Draw 29% | Le Havre 35%. Fair-value odds: Clermont Foot 2.76 | Draw 3.46 | Le Havre 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Clermont Foot are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Le Havre (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Clermont Foot if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.37 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 58% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Clermont Foot's last 10 home games and Le Havre's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Clermont Foot 40% (last 10 home games) | Le Havre 40% (last 10 away games).

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights