Auxerre 0-0 Paris FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Auxerre face Paris FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps plays host to Auxerre versus Paris FC in Ligue 1 (matchday 21). Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Auxerre have collected 0.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 3D 6L. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Auxerre at home: 3W 1D 6L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Paris FC's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L L W D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Paris FC's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.60 for Auxerre, 1.00 for Paris FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 5 H2H matches in our data, Auxerre edge it 2 wins to 1, with 2 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Nov 2025, ended Auxerre 1–1 Paris FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Paris FC half-time and goal-timing data (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 48% versus Paris FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 52% | Paris FC 52%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Auxerre surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Paris FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 33% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.37 xG and Paris FC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.856 / defence 1.018 | Paris FC attack 0.924 / defence 1.097. League average goals — home 1.460 / away 1.219. Data: built from Auxerre's last 54 games and Paris FC's last 20.
Result probabilities: Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 31%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.38 | Draw 3.75 | Paris FC 3.19. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Auxerre 40% (last 10 home games) | Paris FC 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Paris FC | Competition: Ligue 1, matchday 21 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 8 February 2026 at 16:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Auxerre 1.37 / Paris FC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.856 / def 1.018 | Paris FC attack 0.924 / def 1.097 | league avg home 1.460 / away 1.219 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Paris FC xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC FAQs
What time does Auxerre vs Paris FC kick off?
Auxerre vs Paris FC kicked off at 16:15 UK time on Sunday 8 February 2026 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Auxerre 0 - 0 Paris FC.
Where is Auxerre vs Paris FC being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Paris FC part of?
Auxerre vs Paris FC is a Ligue 1 fixture (matchday 21) (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 42% chance of winning, Paris FC a 31% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Auxerre and Paris FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Auxerre vs Paris FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Auxerre's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Paris FC's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Paris FC's attack (0.92x) against Auxerre's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from Auxerre's last 54 games and Paris FC's last 20 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
42%
2.38
27%
3.75
31%
3.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.52
1.15
Paris FC xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
3.19
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
13%
7.50
8%
12.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 9.2 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.1 | 12.7 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Paris FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.15 for Paris FC, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Paris FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Auxerre's recent record stands at 14W 13D 27L from 54 games, a 1.02 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-D in the last five.
Paris FC, meanwhile, have gone 26W 12D 16L across 54 games — 1.67 PPG, with L-L-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Paris FC by 0.65 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Auxerre heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Auxerre have managed 10W 7D 10L from their last 27 home games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Paris FC's away record stands at 11W 6D 10L across their last 27 away games, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Auxerre are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Paris FC are on 1.50 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Paris FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
Auxerre (Home) vs Paris FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Auxerre
Blended
Paris FC
Blended
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC Form FAQs
What form are Auxerre and Paris FC in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 14W 13D 27L in their last 54 games (1.02 PPG), while Paris FC have gone 26W 12D 16L in their last 54 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Paris FC away?
Paris FC's away record (1.44 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 1.37 PPG; Paris FC away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Paris FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Paris FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 7 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2021 — enough to show some patterns. They cover more than one competition — Ligue 2, Ligue 1. The most recent was as recently as 7 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 2L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Paris FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Auxerre
3
Draws
2
Paris FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Paris FC?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Auxerre have won 2, Paris FC have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Paris FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 November 2026: Auxerre 0-1 Paris FC.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Auxerre see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Paris FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 44%, Paris FC 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Auxerre) and 48% (Paris FC).
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Paris FC in 33%; Auxerre have failed to score in 30% of games; Paris FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Paris FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Auxerre vs Paris FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Auxerre and Paris FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Auxerre's recent matches and 52% of Paris FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Auxerre and Paris FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Auxerre's recent games and 48% of Paris FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Auxerre and Paris FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 56% of Auxerre's recent matches and 70% of Paris FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Auxerre's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Auxerre and Paris FC finished level at 0-0 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 21, in the Ligue 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.37 xG and Paris FC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Auxerre fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Paris FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.86 / defence 1.02 against Paris FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.10, drawn from 54/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 42% | Draw 27% | Paris FC 31%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 52%, Paris FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Paris FC's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Paris FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.07 average — tighter than their form line. Paris FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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