Auxerre 1-3 Lyon – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Auxerre at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Auxerre vs Lyon fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Lyon make the trip to Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps to face Auxerre in Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29. The match kicks off on Sunday 13 April 2025 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Auxerre (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Ligue 1 fixtures this term — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Auxerre at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Lyon's overall Ligue 1 record this term: 6W 1D 3L from 10 games (1.90 PPG). Last five: W W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.50 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
Lyon away from home this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.60 PPG for Auxerre against 1.90 for Lyon. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Auxerre 1W, Lyon 1W, 1D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 27 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Auxerre half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Lyon half-time and goal-timing data (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Auxerre 53% versus Lyon 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Auxerre 53% | Lyon 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Auxerre 1.42 xG and Lyon 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Auxerre attack 0.882 / defence 0.796 | Lyon attack 1.209 / defence 1.087. League average goals — home 1.476 / away 1.433. Lyon have an above-average attack strength of 1.209 — the away xG of 1.38 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Auxerre's defence rating of 0.796 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 28 Auxerre games / 62 Lyon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 25% | Lyon 37%. Fair-value odds: Auxerre 2.63 | Draw 4.00 | Lyon 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Auxerre at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Auxerre if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Auxerre 30% | Lyon 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Auxerre vs Lyon | Competition: Ligue 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Apr 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Auxerre 38% | Draw 25% | Lyon 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Auxerre 1.42 / Lyon 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Auxerre attack 0.882 / def 0.796 | Lyon attack 1.209 / def 1.087 | league avg home 1.476 / away 1.433 • Poisson stance: Auxerre (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
Auxerre xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Lyon xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Auxerre vs Lyon kick off?
Auxerre vs Lyon kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 13 April 2025 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What was the final score in Auxerre vs Lyon?
Auxerre 1 - 3 Lyon.
Where is Auxerre vs Lyon being played?
The match is being played at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps.
What competition is Auxerre vs Lyon part of?
Auxerre vs Lyon is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Ligue 1 (France).
Who is favourite to win Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our statistical model gives Auxerre a 38% chance of winning, Lyon a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Auxerre the favourite.
Will both teams score in Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Auxerre and Lyon will score (BTTS).
Will Auxerre vs Lyon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lyon?
Record (3 meetings): Auxerre 1W | Draws 1 | Lyon 1W.
What form are Auxerre and Lyon in?
Auxerre (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W. Lyon (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Auxerre's attack at 0.88x the league average against Lyon's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.42 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lyon's attack (1.21x) against Auxerre's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.38.
These ratings are built from 28/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.4%), 1-2 (8.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Auxerre Win
38%
2.62
25%
3.95
37%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
Auxerre xG
Total xG
2.79
1.38
Lyon xG
2.62
38%
Home win
3.95
25%
Draw
2.74
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
24%
4.12
Win to Nil
10%
10.40
9%
11.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 11.9 | 8.2 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.4 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Auxerre vs Lyon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Auxerre and Lyon expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for Auxerre and 1.38 for Lyon, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Auxerre vs Lyon?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Auxerre come into this having played 62 games, going 30W 17D 15L for 1.73 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Lyon sit at 1.63 PPG from 62 outings (30W 11D 21L), a run that reads W-W-W-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.73 PPG for Auxerre against 1.63 for Lyon. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Auxerre's home form reads 19W 9D 3L across 31 games on their own ground, a 2.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Lyon have taken 1.52 points per game from 31 outings (14W 5D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Auxerre come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Auxerre are averaging 1.69 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Lyon are on 1.66 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Ligue 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Auxerre
Current Season
Lyon
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Auxerre and Lyon in coming into this match?
Auxerre have gone 30W 17D 15L in their last 62 games (1.73 PPG), while Lyon have gone 30W 11D 21L in their last 62 (1.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Auxerre at home or Lyon away?
Auxerre's home record (2.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Auxerre at home: 2.13 PPG; Lyon away: 1.52 PPG.
Have Auxerre or Lyon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Auxerre have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Lyon in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Ligue 1. The two were last together as recently as 4 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Lyon have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Auxerre have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Lyon — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Auxerre
2
Draws
4
Lyon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Auxerre and Lyon?
From 7 meetings on record, Auxerre have won 1, Lyon have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Auxerre and Lyon last play each other?
They last met on 4 September 2026, when Lyon 3-1 Auxerre.
Who has won more matches between Auxerre and Lyon?
Lyon have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Auxerre are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Lyon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Auxerre 45%, Lyon 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Auxerre) and 61% (Lyon). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Auxerre keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Auxerre home games / Lyon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Auxerre play Lyon?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Auxerre's recent matches and 58% of Lyon's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Auxerre vs Lyon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Auxerre's matches and 61% of Lyon's.
Do Auxerre and Lyon tend to score early?
Auxerre have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lyon in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lyon cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Auxerre.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lyon beat Auxerre 1-3 at Stade de l'Abbé Deschamps, Regular Season - 29, in the Ligue 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Auxerre 1.42 xG and Lyon 1.38 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Lyon outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Auxerre attack 0.88 / defence 0.80 against Lyon attack 1.21 / defence 1.09, drawn from 28/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Auxerre 38% | Draw 25% | Lyon 37%, with Auxerre to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Lyon win had been the model's second-ranked read at 37%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Auxerre 53%, Lyon 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Auxerre's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Lyon's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Auxerre 1.73 PPG, Lyon 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lyon win broke the near-deadlock. Auxerre (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.94 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.77 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lyon (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.55 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.